2016 Indiana gubernatorial election
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  Holcomb: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gregg: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Vice President of the United States
U.S. Representative
for Indiana's 2nd and 6th districts Vice presidential campaigns
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The 2016 Indiana gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on May 3, 2016. Republican lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb won the race with 51.4% of the vote.
Incumbent Republican governor Mike Pence was running for reelection to a second term in office until July 15, 2016, when then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump selected Pence as his vice presidential running mate.[1] As Pence was barred by Indiana law from simultaneously running for both offices, he subsequently withdrew from the gubernatorial election.[2] Pence went on to be elected Vice President of the United States. He was replaced on the ballot for governor by his former running mate, incumbent lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb, who was selected by the Indiana Republican State Committee as the nominee on July 26, 2016.[3] Holcomb later selected State Auditor Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was confirmed at a subsequent meeting of the Indiana Republican State Committee later that day.[3][4]
John Gregg, the former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, was the Democratic nominee. Gregg previously ran for Governor in 2012, but was defeated by Pence.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Mike Pence, incumbent governor (withdrew after primary to run for Vice President of the United States as the running mate of Donald Trump)[1]
Declined
[edit]- Greg Ballard, former mayor of Indianapolis
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana (ran for re-election)[5]
- Luke Messer, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)[6][7]
- Todd Young, U.S. Representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)[6][7][8]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Pence (incumbent) | 815,699 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 815,699 | 100.00% | ||
Republican State Committee selection
[edit]On July 15, 2016, Donald Trump announced that Pence would be his running mate as vice president in the 2016 presidential election. Under Indiana law, Pence was unable to run for both governor and vice president simultaneously; he therefore withdrew from the gubernatorial election, creating a vacancy on the Republican ticket. On July 26, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, Jeff Cardwell, announced that Eric Holcomb had been nominated by the Indiana Republican State Committee to replace Pence on the ballot for governor. The vote totals were not released. Holcomb later selected Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was then confirmed by the Committee at a meeting later that day.[3][4]
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana[10]
- Eric Holcomb, Lieutenant Governor of Indiana[10]
- Running mate: Suzanne Crouch, Indiana State Auditor[4]
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative and former Indiana Secretary of State[10]
- Jim Tomes, state senator[11]
Declined
[edit]- Brian Bosma, Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives[10]
- Mitch Daniels, former governor of Indiana[10]
- Lloyd Winnecke, Mayor of Evansville[10]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- John R. Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor in 2012[12]
- Running mate: Christina Hale, state representative[13]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (subsequently ran for re-election)[14]
- Karen Tallian, state senator[15]
Declined
[edit]- Evan Bayh, former U.S. Senator and former governor of Indiana (ran for the U.S. Senate) [16]
- Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend[17]
- Greg Goodnight, Mayor of Kokomo[18]
- Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1990[16][19][20][21]
- Scott Pelath, Minority Leader of the Indiana House of Representatives[22]
- Tony Roswarski, Mayor of Lafayette[18]
- Tom Sugar, vice president of Complete College America and former aide to Evan Bayh[23][24]
Endorsements
[edit]John Gregg
Politicians
- Dennis Buckley, Mayor of Beech Grove[18]
- Doug Campbell, Mayor of Austin[18]
- Harold "Soup" Campbell, Mayor of North Vernon[18]
- Dennis Carr, Mayor of Lawrenceburg[18]
- Anthony Copeland, Mayor of East Chicago[18]
- Collin Czilli, City Councilman, Portage
- Tom DeBaun, Mayor of Shelbyville[18]
- Ted Ellis, Mayor of Bluffton[18]
- Jon Flickinger, Mayor of Bicknell[18]
- Randy Geesaman, Mayor of Portland[18]
- Jack Gilfoy, Mayor of Clinton[18]
- Greg Goodnight, Mayor of Kokomo[18]
- Noel Harty, Mayor of Loogootee[18]
- Pam Hendrickson, Mayor of Boonville[18]
- Tom Henry, Mayor of Fort Wayne[18]
- Dick Hickman, Mayor of Angola[18]
- Robert Hurst, Mayor of Princeton[18]
- Sally Hutton, Mayor of Richmond[18]
- Dean Jessup, Mayor of Lawrence[18]
- Mark Kruzan, Mayor of Bloomington[18]
- Clint Lamb, Mayor of Sullivan[18]
- Sue Murray, Mayor of Greencastle[18]
- Gary Pruett, Mayor of Mitchell[18]
- Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction[25]
- Tony Roswarski, Mayor of Lafayette[18]
- John Schultz, Mayor of Decatur[18]
- Brian Snedecor, Mayor of Hobart[18]
- Joe Stahura, Mayor of Whiting[18]
- Randy Strasser, Mayor of Delphi[18]
- Roy Terrell Jr., Mayor of Jasonville[18]
- John Tucker, Mayor of Mount Vernon[18]
- Dennis Tyler, Mayor of Muncie[18]
- David Uran, Mayor of Crown Point[18]
- John Wilkes, Mayor of Linton[18]
- Hugh Wirth, Mayor of Oakland City[18]
- Brian Wyndham, Mayor of Brazil[18]
- Joe Yochum, Mayor of Vincennes[18]
- Greg York, Mayor of New Castle[18]
Organizations
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John R. Gregg | 547,375 | 100.00 | |
| Total votes | 547,375 | 100.00 | ||
Libertarian Party convention
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Rex Bell, businessman[27]
- Running mate: Karl Tatgenhorst
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Democratic: John R. Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor in 2012
- Running mate: Christina Hale, state representative
- Libertarian: Rex Bell, businessman
- Running mate: Karl Tatgenhorst
- Republican: Eric Holcomb, Lieutenant Governor of Indiana
- Running mate: Suzanne Crouch, Indiana State Auditor
Debates
[edit]- Governor:
- Complete video of debate, September 27, 2016 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 3, 2016 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 25, 2016 - C-SPAN
- Lt. Governor:
- Complete video of debate, August 9, 2016 - Hoosier Ag Today
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Tossup | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[29] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[30] | Tilt R | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[32] | Tossup | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[33] | Tossup | October 27, 2016 |
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Eric Holcomb (R) |
John Gregg (D) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[34] | October 27 – November 3, 2016 | November 3, 2016 | 40.7% | 44.0% | 15.3% | Gregg +3.3% |
Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Eric Holcomb (R) |
John Gregg (D) |
Rex Bell (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[35] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,700 | ± 4.6% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[36] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,383 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | – | 5% |
| WTHR/Howey[37] | November 1–3, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 42% | 5% | 11% |
| SurveyMonkey[38] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 923 | ± 4.6% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[39] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 790 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
| Gravis Marketing[40] | October 30 – November 1, 2016 | 399 | ± 4.9% | 38% | 42% | 4% | 16% |
| SurveyMonkey[41] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 638 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[42] | October 25–31, 2016 | 674 | ± 4.6% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
| Monmouth University[43] | October 27–30, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 48% | 4% | 5% |
| Gravis Marketing[44] | October 22–24, 2016 | 596 | ± 2.3% | 38% | 42% | 4% | 16% |
| Ball State University (PSRAI)[45] | October 10–16, 2016 | 544 | ± 4.8% | 43% | 48% | – | – |
| Monmouth University[46] | October 11–13, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 38% | 50% | 4% | 7% |
| BK Strategies (R-Holcomb)[47] | October 11–13, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 42% | 3% | 13% |
| WTHR/Howey[48] | October 3–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 5% | 15% |
| WTHR/Howey[49] | September 6–8, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 35% | 40% | 6% | 19% |
| Monmouth University[50] | August 13–16, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 41% | 4% | 13% |
| Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg)[51] | August 1–3, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 46% | 6% | 9% |
| The Tarrance Group[52] | July 20–21, 2016 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 34% | 42% | – | 24% |
Hypothetical polling
with Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence (R) |
John Gregg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellwether Research[53] | May 11–15, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 36% | — | 24% |
| WTHR/Howey[54] | April 18–21, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 5% |
| Bellwether Research[55] | May 29–June 3, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 41% | — | 19% |
| Bellwether Research[56] | April 12–14, 2015 | 607 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 37% | — | 21% |
| GQR Research[57] | April 7–9, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
with Susan Brooks
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Brooks (R) |
John Gregg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tarrance Group[52] | July 20–21, 2016 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 41% | — | 23% |
with Todd Rokita
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Todd Rokita (R) |
John Gregg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tarrance Group[52] | July 20–21, 2016 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 41% | — | 23% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[58] | July 16–18, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
with Baron Hill
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence (R) |
Baron Hill (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellwether Research[59] | April 12–14, 2015 | 607 | ± 4% | 43% | 36% | 21% |
with Glenda Ritz
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence (R) |
Glenda Ritz (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellwether Research[55] | May 29–June 3, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
| Bellwether Research[60] | April 12–14, 2015 | 607 | ± 4% | 42% | 39% | — | 18% |
Results
[edit]Holcomb won with 51.4% of the votes, with Gregg taking 45.4%, and Libertarian Rex Bell finishing with 3.2%.[61]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Eric Holcomb/Suzanne Crouch | 1,397,396 | 51.38% | +1.89% | |
| Democratic | John R. Gregg/Christina Hale | 1,235,503 | 45.42% | −1.14% | |
| Libertarian | Rex Bell | 87,025 | 3.20% | −0.75% | |
| Write-in | 44 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,719,968 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Crawford (largest city: Marengo)
- Greene (largest city: Linton)
- Madison (largest city: Anderson)
- Pike (largest city: Petersburg)
- Scott (largest city: Scottsburg)
- Starke (largest city: Knox)
By congressional district
[edit]Holcomb won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[63]
| District | Holcomb | Gregg | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 36% | 62% | Pete Visclosky |
| 2nd | 53% | 43% | Jackie Walorski |
| 3rd | 60% | 37% | Marlin Stutzman |
| 4th | 58% | 39% | Todd Rokita |
| 5th | 52% | 45% | Susan Brooks |
| 6th | 59% | 36% | Luke Messer |
| 7th | 34% | 63% | André Carson |
| 8th | 52% | 45% | Larry Bucshon |
| 9th | 56% | 41% | Todd Young |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
[edit]- ^ a b "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". Retrieved July 15, 2016.
- ^ "Mike Pence officially withdraws from Indiana governor's race". WDRB.com. July 15, 2016. Archived from the original on November 10, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
- ^ a b c Eason, Brian; Tony, Cook; Briggs, James (July 26, 2016). "Indiana GOP panel nominates Eric Holcomb for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved July 26, 2016.
- ^ a b c "Holcomb introduces Crouch as his running mate in governor's race". Fox 59. August 1, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
- ^ Weidenbener, Lesley (April 22, 2015). "Brooks to run for House reelection, not Senate". The Statehouse File. Retrieved April 22, 2015.
- ^ a b Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ a b Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". kokomoperspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.[permanent dead link]
- ^ Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
- ^ a b "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Pennsylvania Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
- ^ a b c d e f "Holcomb, Rokita, Brooks in; Bosma out of race to be GOP gubernatorial nominee". Indiana Business Journal. July 15, 2016. Archived from the original on July 16, 2016. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
- ^ Osowski, Zach (July 19, 2016). "Tomes says despite odds, "It's in my heart to run" for governor". Evansville Courier & Press. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
- ^ LoBianco, Tom (April 30, 2015). "Source: Democrat John Gregg set to announce governor bid". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved April 30, 2015.
- ^ "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale as Running Mate | News - Indiana Public Media". Archived from the original on May 26, 2016. Retrieved May 25, 2016.
- ^ Cook, Tony; Schneider, Chelsea (August 7, 2015). "Glenda Ritz drops out of governor's race". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 7, 2015.
- ^ Carden, Dan (August 17, 2015). "Tallian drops out of governor's race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
- ^ a b "Bayh not running for governor in 2016". nwi.com. September 13, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
- ^ Blasko, Erin (February 25, 2014). "Buttigieg: 'Zero interest' in governor's seat". South Bend Tribune. Retrieved February 23, 2015.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al "36 Indiana Mayors Endorse John Gregg for Governor". Gregg for Governor. August 13, 2015. Archived from the original on August 16, 2015. Retrieved August 14, 2015.
- ^ Spehler, Dan (February 13, 2015). "Potential candidate for governor talks education, healthcare". WXIN. Retrieved February 20, 2015.
- ^ Hayden, Maureen (December 3, 2014). "Former Congressman Hill mulls run for governor". News and Tribune. Retrieved December 3, 2014.
- ^ Cahn, Emily (May 15, 2015). "Ousted Democrat Announces Indiana Senate Bid". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2015. Retrieved May 15, 2015.
- ^ Carden, Dan (May 27, 2015). "Pelath rules out run for governor". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
- ^ Schneider, Chelsea (August 7, 2015). "Long-time Bayh aide mulling run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 7, 2015.
- ^ Schneider, Chelsea (September 21, 2015). "Tom Sugar will not run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved September 21, 2015.
- ^ "Former Indiana governor candidate Glenda Ritz lends support to John Gregg". The News-Sentinel. Associated Press. August 11, 2015. Retrieved August 17, 2015.[dead link]
- ^ "Indiana State AFL-CIO Endorses John Gregg for Governor". Indiana State AFL-CIO. August 17, 2015. Archived from the original on August 22, 2015. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
- ^ a b c Staff (April 28, 2016). "Libertarian Party of Indiana nominates Rex Bell for Governor". Greensburg Daily News. Retrieved May 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ WTHR/Howey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Ball State University (PSRAI)
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ BK Strategies (R-Holcomb)
- ^ WTHR/Howey [permanent dead link]
- ^ WTHR/Howey Archived October 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg)
- ^ a b c The Tarrance Group
- ^ Bellwether Research
- ^ WTHR/Howey
- ^ a b Bellwether Research
- ^ Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ GQR Research
- ^ Public Opinion Strategies
- ^ Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Indiana Secretary of State Election Results
- ^ "Indiana Secretary of State Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 4, 2017.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites (archived)