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2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) presidential election

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2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election
← 2021 27 September 2024[1] 2027 →
 
Candidate Shigeru Ishiba Sanae Takaichi Shinjirō Koizumi
Leader's seat Tottori 1st Nara 2nd Kanagawa 11th
First round 154 (20.95%) 181 (24.63%) 136 (18.50%)
Runoff vote 215 (52.57%) 194 (47.43%) Eliminated
President before election

Fumio Kishida

 Elected President

Shigeru Ishiba

This article is part of
a series about
Shigeru Ishiba
  • Leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party
  • Premiership
  • Elections

The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election was held on 27 September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a three-year term.

Incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not run for re-election, amid record-low approval ratings following controversy over a slush fund scandal involving the party factions Seiwakai and Shisuikai, both of which disbanded in January 2024. Kishida's Kōchikai also disbanded. Approval ratings were also mired by the party's affiliations with the Unification Church.[2][3][4][5]

The 2024 presidential election was the first since the abolition of most of the party's factions in the wake of the slush fund scandal, which led to commentators describing the election's outcome as unusually volatile and unpredictable.[6] Nine candidates ran for the presidency, a record number.[7] At the beginning of the official campaign period, Former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba, former Minister of the Environment Shinjirō Koizumi and Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi emerged as the three top front-runners based on polling. Ishiba and Koizumi were described as the "centrists" of the election,[8][9][10] while Takaichi was described as a "staunch conservative."[11]

Ishiba narrowly defeated Takaichi in a runoff, and was confirmed by the Diet as the next Prime Minister four days later on 1 October.[12][13] Ishiba's victory was described by commentators as unexpected and an upset, owing to his past leadership bid failures as well as his prior unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet.[14]

Election procedure

[edit]

The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party". In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.

The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan. In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots. If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected president.

As no candidate received a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff was held immediately between the top two candidates, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi. In a runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture. The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected president. Ishiba received 215 votes to Takaichi's 194, securing Ishiba the spot as the next leader of the LDP.[15]

Background

[edit]

Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihide Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.[16]

Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church

[edit]
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his second cabinet in 2023 to include more women and keep potential political rivals in key roles.
Main article: Assassination of Shinzo Abe
Further information: Unification Church § In Japan (1970–2023)

Following the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating, decreased.[17] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government.[17][18]

Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.[19]

Slush fund scandal

[edit]
Main article: 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal

In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.[20][21]

Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction.[22][23][24] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entirety of Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.[25][26] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.[27]

The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.[28]

On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later in January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.[29][30]

Kishida Cabinet approval ratings since 2021.

Continued unpopularity and resignation

[edit]

Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.[31][22][32]

Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition.[33] Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this".[34][35] Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.[36]

Campaign

[edit]

Prelude

[edit]

Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8 July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run.[37] On 30 June, the Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election.[38] She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July.[39]

Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono in June 2024.

On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner.[40] Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day.[41] On 10 August, Kono again conveyed his desire to run to Taro Aso. He reportedly told Aso he would run with or without his support.[42]

Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements".[43] He indicated on 11 July that he would make a decision by August.[44] Later on 21 July Ishiba said he would decide around the Obon holiday period (August 13–16).[45] Two days later he said that were he to run, he would campaign on deleting the second paragraph of Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution renouncing Japan's right to wage war.[46] Ishiba declared his candidacy on 14 August, hours after Kishida's resignation.[47]

On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff.[48] While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency.[49] Diet Member Naoki Furukawa [ja] suggested Kishida be replaced by Koizumi on 12 July.[50]

Fumio Kishida and Shinjiro Koizumi in May 2024.

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July.[51] Motegi later said on 22 July that he would not be the first candidate to formally declare his intention to run, in order to avoid becoming the "Reiwa era Nobuteru Ishihara" who ran in the 2012 election.[52] On the same day, he stated he would make a decision by early September.[53] Motegi will embark on a trip to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines on 28 July in an effort to boost his profile.[54]

On 24 July Seiko Noda met with policy chief Tokai Kisaburo, Diet Affairs Chair Hamada Yasukazu (both of whom endorsed her campaign in 2021) and others to discuss her potential candidacy.[55]

Takayuki Kobayashi indicated on 12 August that the party should "balance out" punishments against Abe faction members for the kickback scandal, arguing that removal from leadership has made on the ground activities challenging.[56] LDP Upper House Member Shigeharu Aoyama indicated in a press conference that he would run for the Presidency.[57] The same day Diet members Tatsuo Fukuda, Masanobu Ogura and Keitaro Ohno stated in an opinion piece that the election was "a big opportunity for a change in generation and appointing women," seemingly calling for Kishida to step aside.[58]

Kishida declines and early campaign activities

[edit]
Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not seek re-election as party leader.
Kishida announcing that he will not seek re-election as President of the party, 14 August 2024

On 14 August, Fumio Kishida announced that he would not seek a second term as President of the Liberal Democratic Party.[59] This effectively made the race an "open field" for new candidates.[60] Kishida was reportedly pressured by influential members of the party, such as Taro Aso, Masahito Moriyama and Yoshimasa Hayashi to not seek a second term.[61][62] The announcement reportedly unsettled Japanese markets, which were already disturbed by a surprise rate increase by the Bank of Japan in late July.[63] At a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on the same day, Kishida stated resigning was the "easiest way to clearly show that the LDP has changed".[64][65] He also cited the slush funds scandal as a reason for stepping aside, believing it was the only way to take "responsibility" as party leader for losing trust from the public.[66] He pledged to support whoever will be chosen by the party as a rank-and-file member, refusing to endorse a particular candidate, adding that he was withdrawing so that the party could have an "open contest to promote debate".[67][68][69][70] Kishida's more than 1,000 days in power made him Japan's eighth longest-serving post-war prime minister.[71]

Kishida's decision to not seek a second term made the leadership election "especially chaotic".[72] Immediately after Kishida's announcement, several potential candidates were mentioned, among them being Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba, Toshimitsu Motegi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi.[73] Seiko Noda, Katsunobu Kato and Yoko Kamikawa were also considered potential contenders.[74][75]

Prior to Kishida's decision to opt out of re-election, Shigeru Ishiba expressed interest in running for the LDP presidency and led in several polls

The night after the press conference, Toshimitsu Motegi met with Taro Aso, who said it would be difficult to support him.[76] Early after Kishida's announcement, it was reported that it was unlikely he would back Motegi.[77] The day after his announcement on 15 August, Kishida informed his cabinet ministers that they may start campaigning for LDP President as long as it doesn't affect their duties as ministers. That same day, Shinjiro Koizumi and Takayuki Kobayashi visited the Yasukuni Shrine on the 79th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II.[78][79] Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito also said he was interested in running, after previously backing Kishida.[80] Potential candidate Yukio Obuchi stated that she would support Saito over her faction boss Motegi.[81] Yoshimasa Hayashi reportedly told fellow lawmakers on 16 August that he was keen on running.[82] On 17 August, Yōko Kamikawa announced her candidacy in a tweet.[83] She later stated that she was running to make Japan "an attractive country for all".[84] That same day, several candidates were asked on their position on same-sex marriage. Kono stated he supported it, Ishiba, Saito, Kato and Kamikawa took a neutral stance, while Kobayashi and Takaichi stated they opposed it. Koizumi, Hayashi and Motegi did not give a response.[85] By 17 August, it was reported that Hayashi and Kono had secured enough endorsements to declare their own candidacies.[86] Upper House Diet member Hiroshi Yamada told reporters on 21 August that Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi had secured 20 endorsements, and she believed she would formally announce her candidacy next week.[87] She had reportedly been struggling to get the adequate endorsements.[88]

Early declarations

[edit]
On 19 August, Takayuki Kobayashi became the first to formally announce their leadership candidacy

The day after Kishida's announcement, Kobayashi appeared to have already amassed 20 endorsements, and was preparing to announce his candidacy soon.[89] He visited sites related to North Korea's 1977 abduction of Megumi Yokota on 17 August.[90] Former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi became the first to formally announce his candidacy during a press conference on August 19, emphasizing the need to "reform" the party.[91] On 23 August Kobayashi stated "We should proceed carefully and cautiously with optional separate surnames for married couples".[92] That same day, House of Councillors member Shigeharu Aoyama declared his candidacy.[57]

The same day, Katsunobu Kato said he had close to 20 endorsements.[93] Yomiuri reported that Koizumi planned to formally announce his candidacy on August 30.[94] The following day it was reported that Yoshimasa Hayashi was struggling to announce his own candidacy and amass his own endorsements.[95] He originally planned to announce on August 27, but had to postpone in order to prioritize the government response to an imminent typhoon, in his capacity as Chief Cabinet Secretary.[96] On 25 August, Kamikawa told reporters that she had secured more than 20 endorsements.[97]

Shigeru Ishiba was in Taipei when the news of Kishida's not seeking another term broke. He stated that if he could receive 20 endorsements, he would run.[98] He also said he'd be open to appointing Abe faction members to key posts if they're reelected.[99] Ishiba announced his candidacy on 24 August in his home constituency of Tottori.[100] He described his campaign as the "culmination of my 38 year political career".[101] His fifth LDP presidential campaign, Ishiba said it would be his "last".[102][103] At the event, he questioned whether the party should endorse candidates who received kickbacks at the next general election.[104] A press conference was expected the following week.[105]

Digital Minister Taro Kono announced his candidacy in a press conference held on 26 August in Tokyo.[106][107][108] He became the first sitting Cabinet minister to announce. In his press conference, he stated he wanted to "move the country forward" as leader.[109] Kono also acknowledged that his "record on reform" would be put to the test during the election. On economic policy, he said he would return to "fiscal austerity." Kono also said he would ask lawmakers receiving kickbacks to return the money.[110] The day after Kono's press conference, Taro Aso told faction members that he would personally back Kono, but would allow members to support other candidates.[111][112] Members of the dissolved Abe faction were reportedly frustrated with Ishiba's and Kono's questioning of support to members who received financial kickbacks.[113] Kono announced on 31 August that he would leave the Aso faction if he became Prime Minister.[114]

Kobayashi, Kono and Ishiba were dubbed "The Early Birds" by the Council on Foreign Relations for being the first to announce.[115]

Field widens as campaign intensifies

[edit]
On 6 September, Shinjirō Koizumi announced his campaign

On 27 August, it was reported that Takaichi had also been forced to postpone her campaign announcement to the following week due to a typhoon.[116] The next day Sankei reported she would officially declare on 9 September.[117] Hayashi was reportedly planning to formally declare his candidacy on 3 September.[118] Meanwhile, Koizumi confirmed in a tweet that he would formally announce his campaign in a press conference on 6 September.[119][120] On 30 August, former Birthrate Minister and former leadership candidate Seiko Noda said she would formally announce her candidacy once she gathers enough support.[121]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announced his campaign in a press conference on 3 September.[122] Hayashi, who had experience as a cabinet minister in various capacities, advocated for "people-friendly politics" in his speech.[123] He pledged to implement wage hikes, election reform, and regional revitalization.[124]

Kobayashi and Ishiba clashed on taxes and reform. On 3 September Kobayashi stated he opposed any income tax increases, while Ishiba said he planned to increase taxation.[125][126] The two also disagreed on the creation of a Ministry for Disaster Prevention; Ishiba supported it while Kobayashi argued it would create more unnecessary bureaucracy.[127] The same day, Kobayashi met with Taro Aso.[128]

Former Foreign Minister and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi entered the race on 4 September, promising not to raise taxes.[129]

Kato confirmed he had 20 endorsements by 6 September and was expected to announce his campaign on 10 September.[130] Noda was reportedly struggling to pick up 20 endorsements of her own.[131]

On 9 September, Sanae Takaichi announced her second campaign for the LDP leadership

On 6 September, former Environment Minister Shinjirō Koizumi, who had been considered a "rising star" of the LDP, officially declared his candidacy in the leadership election at a press conference.[132][133] He pledged to introduce legislation that would legalize separate surnames for married couples, promising it would "be done within a year".[134][135] Koizumi promised to dissolve the lower of house and call a general election "as soon as possible" if elected President and later Prime Minister.[136][137] He proposed holding a national referendum to determine whether or not Article 9 of the Constitution should be amended.[138] His press conference also focused on regulatory and political reform; Koizumi said he would seek an LDP without factional dynamics.[139][140] Koizumi gave his first street speech the following day in Tokyo's Ginza.[141]

Kono said on 6 September that a Constitutional amendment concerning Article 9 should include "collective self-defense rights" beyond clearly stating the rights of the Japan Self-Defense Forces.[142] The previous day his campaign released a comprehensive policy vision, which included labor market reform, use of renewable energy, the creation of a digital safety net and lowering the age of candidacy to 18 years old.[143][144]

On 9 September, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi announced her second campaign for the LDP leadership, becoming the first female candidate to officially declare their candidacy.[7] The following day, former Health Minister Katsunobu Katō formally announced his campaign.[145] That same day, former Internal Affairs Minister Seiko Noda announced she would not run in the election and endorsed Koizumi's candidacy.[146] On 11 September, Foreign Affairs Minister Yōko Kamikawa announced her candidacy.[147]

Front runners emerge

[edit]
Despite her popularity as Foreign Minister, Yōko Kamikawa received little attention during the election cycle

As the race began to start in full in mid-September, three candidates were largely talked about, primarily being given the breadth of media coverage; Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba, and Sanae Takaichi all were largely talked about.[148][149] Other candidates, such as Taro Kono and Yōko Kamikawa also got limited attention.[150][151]

Koizumi was damaged in a series of gaffes, such as his father stating he was not ready to be Prime Minister.[152] He also made controversial statements on the issue of North Korean abductees, stating he'd meet with "Kim", referring to Kim Jong Un. Takaichi began to be looked upon more favorably by rank-and-file members.[153]

In terms of base, Koizumi's was firmly rooted in Diet members, mainly due to Yoshihide Suga lending Koizumi support. He had secured roughly 50 Diet members, compared to the other two frontrunners, Ishiba and Takaichi, with just around 30. While Hayashi and Kobayashi had secured numbers in the 40s, they had since fallen behind the fray in public opinion polling. Motegi secured just over 30.[154]

Ishiba practiced a strategy of consolidating national support, as he had been consistently ranked one of the most popular politicians in the country, but had burned bridges with much of the party establishment during the Abe cabinets. Takaichi mixed both of these strategies and consolidated lawmakers involved in the slush fund scandal which rocked the LDP earlier in the year, causing the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai to dissolve. However, she was still highly unpopular with most establishment figures. She gained serious momentum entering the campaign period, and began to lead in party member polls.[155][156]

Election day and Ishiba's victory

[edit]
Ishiba being designated as prime minister by the National Diet on 1 October 2024

The first round of the election was held on 27 September in which Takaichi received the majority of votes.[157] Ishiba advanced to the run-off, coming in second place after receiving 154 votes against Takaichi's 181.[157] Koizumi, the third front-runner of the election, failed to advance to the run-off as did the other remaining candidates.[157] The Japan Times noted after the first round that the other six candidates had "failed to make headway" against the three front-runners: Ishiba, Takaichi and Koizumi.[157]

Following a political funds scandal prior to the election, most of the official factions, including the one that had been led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, former Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, leadership candidate Motegi and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, were dissolved.[157] For the run-off, Kono indicated his support for Takaichi.[157] After Hayashi's defeat, Prime Minister Kishida reportedly whipped votes for Ishiba in the second round of voting after having endorsed Hayashi.[158][159]

In the leadership election on 27 September 2024, Ishiba narrowly defeated Takaichi in a second-round runoff, winning a total of 215 votes (52.57%) from 189 parliamentary members and 26 prefectural chapters, making him the new LDP leader and prime minister-designate.[160] Ishiba's victory was described by commentators as unexpected and an upset, owing to his long history of failed leadership bids and his relative unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet.[161] After his election, the Japanese stock market experienced a sudden drop in response to Ishiba's economic policies, which was named "Ishiba Shock".[162][163][164]

Schedule

[edit]

Jiji reported on 21 July that the LDP would establish an election committee for the presidential election on 26 July. The 11-person committee is headed by Diet Member Ichiro Aisawa, and was reported to most likely determine the election date to be between September 20 to 30, with the two most likely dates being the 20th and 27th.[165][166]

On 19 August, a date of 27 September was set for the election.[167]

Timetable

[edit]
Key dates
Date Event
14 August Incumbent LDP President Fumio Kishida announces he will not seek a second term as party leader. He refuses to endorse a successor.[59]
19 August Former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi announces his candidacy, becoming the first to do so.[91]
24 August Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba declares his candidacy. It is his fifth party leadership campaign.[100]
26 August Digital Minister Taro Kono announces his campaign. It is his third party leadership campaign.[107]
3 September Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declares his campaign. It is his second party leadership campaign.[122]
4 September LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi announces his candidacy.[168]
6 September Former Environment Minister Shinjirō Koizumi declares his candidacy.[132]
9 September Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi declares her candidacy. It his her second leadership campaign and is the first female candidate to formally become a candidate in this election.[7]
10 September Former Health Minister Katsunobu Katō declares his candidacy.[145]
11 September Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa declares her candidacy.[147]
12 September Nomination period closes; deadline for potential candidates to gather the support of twenty LDP MPs to qualify for the first ballot. Official campaign period begins.[169]
26 September Party member voting deadline.
27 September LDP MPs vote in the first ballot to reduce the race to two candidates.[167] Shigeru Ishiba defeats Sanae Takaichi in the second round runoff, making him Prime Minister-designate of Japan.[170]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

The following candidates have officially declared their candidacies for the leadership:

Candidate(s) Date of birth Current position Party faction Electoral district Reference(s)
Yoshimasa Hayashi 		(1961-01-19)19 January 1961
(age 63) 		Chief Cabinet Secretary
(since 2023)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2021)
Previous offices held
 None
Yamaguchi 3rd 		[171][172]
Shigeru Ishiba 		(1957-02-04)4 February 1957
(age 67) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1986)
Previous offices held
 Suigetsukai
(Ishiba)
Tottori 1st 		[173][174]
Yōko Kamikawa 		(1953-03-01)1 March 1953
(age 71) 		Minister for Foreign Affairs
(since 2023)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2000)
Previous offices held
 None
Shizuoka 1st 		[147]
Katsunobu Katō 		(1955-11-22)22 November 1955
(age 68) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2003)
Previous offices held
 Heisei Kenkyūkai
(Motegi)
Okayama 5th[a] 		[145]
Takayuki Kobayashi 		(1974-11-29)29 November 1974
(age 49) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2012)
Previous offices held
  • Minister of State for Economic Security (2021–2022)
 None
Chiba 2nd 		[175][176]
Shinjirō Koizumi 		(1981-04-14)14 April 1981
(age 43) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2009)
Previous offices held
 None
Kanagawa 11th 		[132][177]
Taro Kono 		(1963-01-10)10 January 1963
(age 61) 		Minister for Digital Transformation
(since 2022)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1996)
Previous offices held
 Shikōkai
(Asō)
Kanagawa 15th 		[106][107]
Toshimitsu Motegi 		(1955-07-10)10 July 1955
(age 68) 		Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party
(since 2021)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 Heisei Kenkyūkai
(Motegi)
Tochigi 1st 		[129][178]
Sanae Takaichi 		(1961-03-07)7 March 1961
(age 63) 		Minister of State for Economic Security
(since 2022)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 None
Nara 2nd 		[7]

Supporters

[edit]

Party regulations require at least 20 Diet members' support to run.

Yoshimasa Hayashi[179]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Shigeru Ishiba[180]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Yoko Kamikawa[181]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Katsunobu Kato[182]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Takayuki Kobayashi[183]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Shinjiro Koizumi[184]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Taro Kono[185]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Toshimitsu Motegi[186]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Sanae Takaichi[187]
Leader of Supporters
Campaign Manager
Supporters
Number of supporters by former factions[188]
Candidates Shigeru Ishiba Sanae Takaichi Shinjiro Koizumi Yoshimasa Hayashi Takayuki Kobayashi Toshimitsu Motegi Yoko Kamikawa Taro Kono Katsunobu Kato
Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai 0 14 1 1 4 3 2 0 4
Shikōkai 0 2 1 0 4 2 9 18 1
Heisei Kenkyūkai 1 0 0 0 0 14 1 1 6
Kōchikai 0 0 2 15 1 0 5 0 0
Shisuikai 4 2 2 0 5 0 2 1 5
Kinmirai Seiji Kenkyūkai 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1
Suigetsukai 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No faction 7 2 14 4 4 1 1 0 3

Declined

[edit]

Pre-election endorsements

[edit]
Endorsements of Yoshimasa Hayashi
Cabinet-level officials
  • Hiroshi Moriya (Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2023–present; Member of the House of Councillors, 2013–present)[195]
Members of the National Diet
Endorsements of Yōko Kamikawa
Cabinet-level officials
  • Midori Matsushima (Minister of Justice, 2014; Member of the House of Representatives, 2000–2009; 2012–present)[197]
Members of the National Diet
Endorsements of Shinjirō Koizumi
Former Prime Ministers
  • Yoshihide Suga (Prime Minister, 2020–2021; Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2012–2020; Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, 2006–2007; Member of the House of Representatives, 1996–present)[194]
Members of the National Diet
Endorsements of Taro Kono
Former Prime Ministers
  • Tarō Asō, (Prime Minister, 2008–2009; Deputy Prime Minister, 2012–2021; Minister of Finance, 2012–2021; President of the Liberal Democratic Party, 2008–2009; Minister for Foreign Affairs, 2005–2007; Minister for International Affairs and Communications, 2003–2005; Member of the House of Representatives, 1986–present)[202]
Prefectural officials
Endorsements of Sanae Takaichi
Members of the National Diet

Declined

[edit]
Endorsements of Fumio Kishida
Cabinet-level officials
  • Yoshimasa Hayashi (Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2023–present; Minister for Foreign Affairs, 2021–2023; Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, 2017–2018; Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 2012–2014; Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, 2009; Minister of Defense, 2008; Member of the House of Representatives, 2021–present; Member of the House of Councillors, 1995–2021)[207]
  • Seiji Kihara (Former Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, 2023; Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2021–2023; Member of the House of Representatives, 2000–2009; 2012–present)[208]
Endorsements of Ken Saito
Cabinet-level officials
  • Yūko Obuchi (Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2014); Member of the House of Representative (2000–present)[81]

Opinion polls

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 LDP leadership election with a 7-day average since the election was called. Note that the approval ratings of Liberal Democratic Party Supporters are omitted from the graph.

(Figures in parentheses are approval ratings of Liberal Democratic Party supporters)

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size[vague] Shigeru
Ishiba 		Sanae
Takaichi 		Shinjirō
Koizumi 		Yoshimasa
Hayashi 		Takayuki
Kobayashi 		Toshimitsu
Motegi 		Yōko
Kamikawa 		Taro
Kono 		Katsunobu
Katō 		Others NOT/
UD/NA
27 Sep 2024 LDP presidential election 695.536 (29.12) (29.30) (16.63) (7.50) (5.10) (3.75) (4.73) (2.15) (1.72) – –
21–22 Sep 2024 ANN 1,012 31 15 20 3 3 2 5 5 1 – 15
21 Sep 2024 SSRC 2,044 26
(24) 		17
(29) 		14
(23) 		3 3 1 5 4 1 – 26
(24)
20–21 Sep 2024 Nippon TV/JX 1,007 (31) (28) (14) (5) (6) (2) (6) (2) (1) – (5)
15–16 Sep 2024 Kyodo News N/A (23.7) (27.7) (19.1) (6.3) (5.2) (1.8) (5.1) (3.8) (1.7) – (5.6)
14–15 Sep 2024 go2senkyo/JX 992 31 16.7 17 4.5 3.1 1.7 7 3.6 0.6 – 14.6
14–15 Sep 2024 Sankei/FNN 1,012 25.6
(24.1) 		12.5
(16.3) 		21.9
(29.4) 		3.5
(3.8) 		3
(3.6) 		1.6
(3) 		5.5
(3.6) 		4.6
(5.2) 		0.2
(0.3) 		– 21.6
(10.7)
14–15 Sep 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,500 (26) (25) (16) (5) (6) (2) (6) (3) (1) – (9)
14–15 Sep 2024 Asahi 1,070 32 17 24 4 3 1 3 3 0 – 13
13–15 Sep 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,040 27 13 21 2 2 2 5 6 1 – 20[b]
13–15 Sep 2024 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 902 26 16 20 5 3 2 6 5 1 – 16
12 Sep 2024 Nippon TV/JX 1,022 (25) (22) (19) (5) (5) (3) (9) (3) (1) – (9)
12 Sep 2024 Nomination period closes. Official campaign period begins.
7–8 Sep 2024 JNN 1,011 23.1
(24.1) 		9.2
(11.7) 		28.5
(34.5) 		1.8
(2.8) 		2.8
(2.6) 		2.1
(2.9) 		6.1
(5.9) 		6.4
(6.7) 		0.5
(0.8) 		3.6
(2)[c] 		15.9
(6)
6–9 Sep 2024 Jiji Press 1,170 24.2
(27.1) 		8.5
(12.1) 		25.5
(35.6) 		1.4 2.9 1.4 2.1 4.9
(3.6) 		0.3 – 27.8[d]
6–8 Sep 2024 NHK 1,220 27.8 9.3 22.6 1.9 3.6 1.7 4.2 6.1 0.7 3.8[e] 18.3[f]
3–4 Sep 2024 Nippon TV/JX 1,019[g] (28) (17) (18) (4) (5) (2) (7) (3) (2) (4)[h] (10)
31 Aug–1 Sep 2024 go2senkyo 1,000 16.5
(28.6) 		7.5
(11.8) 		11.6
(17.6) 		0.7 1.3 0.7 2.9 4.3 0.2 3.7[i] 50.6
24–25 Aug 2024 SSRC 1,752 23 11 16 2 5 1 5 5 – 5[j] 28
24–25 Aug 2024 Asahi 1,058 21 8 21 1 5 2 6 6 1 1[k] 28[l]
24–25 Aug 2024 ANN 1,015 27 9 23 1 6 1 6 6 – 1 19
24–25 Aug 2024 Mainichi 950 29 13 16 1 7 1 6 5 1 1[m] 20[n]
24–25 Aug 2024 Sankei/FNN N/A 21.6 10.8 22.4 1.0 3.6 1.3 4.2 7.7 0.6 3.1[o] 23.7
23–25 Aug 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,056 22 10 20 1 5 2 6 7 1 1[p] 25[q]
21–22 Aug 2024 Nikkei/TV Tokyo N/A 18 11 23 2 8 1 6 7 1 2[r] –
17–19 Aug 2024 Kyodo News 1,064 25.3 10.1 19.6 – 3.7 – 7.6 9.7 – – –
17–18 Aug 2024 go2senkyo/JX 987 29.1 12.6 14.7 – 5.7 2.0 6.2 5.8 – 7.6[s] 16.4

Hypothetical polling

[edit]

The following polls feature Fumio Kishida, who was then speculated to run for re-election for the Liberal Democratic party leadership before deciding against entering the race.

Hypothetical polling with Fumio Kishida as a candidate
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2024 Japanese general election § Before the call of LDP presidential election.[edit]
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 LDP leadership election with a 7-day average.
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size[vague] Shigeru
Ishiba 		Shinjirō
Koizumi 		Taro
Kono 		Sanae
Takaichi 		Yoshihide
Suga 		Yōko
Kamikawa 		Fumio
Kishida 		Seiko
Noda 		Toshimitsu
Motegi 		Yoshimasa
Hayashi 		Katsunobu
Katō 		Others NOT/
UD/NA
19 Aug 2024 LDP presidential election is called for 27 September.
14 Aug 2024 Fumio Kishida announces he will not seek re-election as President of the LDP.
3–4 Aug 2024 JNN 1,010 23.1 14.5 7.1 7 4.8 6.9 6.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.8[t] 26.6
26–28 Jul 2024 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 792 24 15 5 8 5 6 6 2 1 2 – 4[u] 24
20–21 Jul 2024 Sankei/FNN 1,033 24.7 12.1 7.0 7.5 5.4 4.8 4.1 1.4 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.1[v] 30.4[w]
20–21 Jul 2024 Kyodo News 1,035 28.4 12.7 9 10.4 – 8.2 7.5 1.1 2.5 0.7 0.7 1.1[x] 17.7
20–21 Jul 2024 SSRC 2,044 17 12 4 7 7 5 6 – – – – 9[y] 33
19–21 Jul 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,031 25 15 8 6 6 4 6 2 1 1 – 1[z] 25[aa]
13–14 Jul 2024 ANN 1,012 27 18 6 6 4 6 4 2 1 – 1 1 24
6–7 Jul 2024 JNN 1,021 24 16.6 9.3 5.8 5.8 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.8[ab] 25.5
22–23 Jun 2024 SSRC 2,043 18 11 5 5 7 5 5 – – – – 9[ac] 35
22–23 Jun 2024 Mainichi 1,057 20 7 5 9 6 8 5 – 1 – – – 39
22–23 Jun 2024 Kyodo News 1,056 26.2 12.1 7.8 6.8 – 7.8 6.6 2.4 2.4 1 0.9 1.9 25.1
21–23 Jun 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,023 23 15 6 7 8 6 6 3 1 1 1 1[ad] 22[ae]
15–16 Jun 2024 go2senkyo/JX 984 23.2 9.9 4.8 8.5 – 8.6 7.8 – 0.9 2.4 – 8 25.9
15–16 Jun 2024 Sankei/FNN 1,013 16.4 14.6 8.4 6.3 5.8 5.6 4.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.7[af] 35.3[ag]
15–16 Jun 2024 ANN 1,026 23 18 8 6 5 7 3 3 1 – – 1 25
18–19 May 2024 ANN 1,045 23 18 7 6 5 9 4 1 1 – – 1 25
17–19 May 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,033 22 16 10 7 6 7 4 1 2 2 – 2[ah] 21[ai]
4–5 May 2024 JNN 1,013 24.2 14.1 8.4 6.1 7 7.8 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.9 1.4 8.2 15.3
13–14 Apr 2024 ANN 1,037 21 18 8 6 5 9 5 2 1 – – 1 24
22–24 Mar 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,020 22 15 8 5 6 9 7 1 1 1 – 2[aj] 23[ak]
16–17 Mar 2024 ANN 1,031 22 18 9 6 5 11 4 2 1 – – 1 21
16–17 Mar 2024 SSRC 2,044 17 11 6 6 6 8 3 – – – – 8[al] 35
8–11 Mar 2024 Jiji Press 1,160 18.6 12.1 6.4 4.7 5.7 5.9 2.3 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.4[am] 40.4
9–10 Mar 2024 Kyodo News 1,043 22.2 15.4 7.9 8.3 – 10.8 4.9 1.8 0.9 0.5 – 2.8[an] 24.5
24–25 Feb 2024 ANN 1,034 23 17 9 6 4 11 2 3 1 – – 1[ao] 34
17–18 Feb 2024 SSRC 2,043 17 10 7 6 7 10 3 – – – – 7[ap] 33
17–18 Feb 2024 Mainichi 1,024 25 9 7 9 – 12 1 2 1 – – – 34
16–18 Feb 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,083 21 17 10 6 4 8 4 2 2 – – 2[aq] 12
26–28 Jan 2024 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 969 22 15 10 7 7 5 3 2 2 3 – 3[ar] 17
21 Jan 2024 SSRC 2,052 17 12 7 7 9 5 4 – – – 5 3[as] 32
20–21 Jan 2024 ANN 1,007 23 19 9 7 6 5 4 2 1 – – 2[at] 24
16–17 Dec 2023 ANN 1,011 23 19 11 7 4 6 3 1 1 – – 2[au] 23
16–17 Dec 2023 Kyodo News 1,018 25.7 15.9 13.2 6.2 – 5.9 5.2 2.4 1.3 3.9 – 2.7[av] 17.6
15–17 Dec 2023 Yomiuri/NNN 1,069 20 17 12 7 8 4 4 2 2 2 – 1[aw] 23[ax]
15–16 Dec 2023 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 729 21 19 12 7 5 4 3 1 1 3 – 1[ay] 23
8–11 Dec 2023 Jiji Press 2,000 15 16 8.8 5 6.2 3.1 1.6 – – – – 1 40.3
25–26 Nov 2023 ANN 1,015 17 19 13 7 6 4 4 2 1 – – 1[az] 26
24–26 Nov 2023 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 869 16 15 13 9 5 2 4 2 1 3 – 3[ba] 26
18–19 Nov 2023 Asahi 1,086 15 16 13 8 – – 7 – 1 1 – – 36
11–12 Nov 2023 Sankei/FNN N/A 18.2 16 11.9 5.4 4.2 4.3 2.5 – – – – 5.2 32.3
3–5 Nov 2023 Kyodo News 1,040 20.2 14.1 14.2 10 – – 5.7 3.1 2.3 2.4 – 5.8[bb] 22.2
23–24 Sep 2023 ANN 1,018 18 15 14 5 7 – 5 3 3 – – 3[bc] 22
19–20 Aug 2023 Kyodo News 1,049 18.5 11.9 13.5 7 – – 10.2 1.6 2 3.7 – 3[bd] 28.6
8–9 Jul 2023 ANN 1,023 15 16 13 5 10 – 10 2 – – – 3[be] 27
4 Jun 2023 SSRC 1,502 4 4 9 4 4 – 19 – – – – 7[bf] 49
3–4 Dec 2022 JNN 1,227 11 – 19 5 7 – 6 2 2 1 – – 39
19–20 Nov 2022 SSRC for Mainichi 3,069 5.9 4 14.7 4.7 4.4 – 15.8 – – – – 6.4[bg] 17
17–18 Sep 2022 SSRC 642 5.1 2.1 13.6 5.1 3.4 – 10.3 – – – – 8[bh] 20.9

Preferred outcome

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Kishida continues as PM Election of new PM Und. / no answer Lead
22–23 Jun 2024 SSRC 2,043 8 63 29 34

Results

[edit]
Full results by round[209]
Candidate First Round Runoff
Diet members Party members Total points Diet members Prefectural chapters Total points
Votes % Popular votes % Allocated votes % Total votes % Votes % Votes % Total votes %
Shigeru Ishiba 当 46 12.53% 202,558 29.12% 108 29.35% 154
20.95% 189 52.21% 26 55.32% 215
52.57%
Sanae Takaichi 72 19.62% 203,802 29.30% 109 29.62% 181
24.63% 173 47.79% 21 44.68% 194
47.43%
Shinjirō Koizumi 75 20.44% 115,633 16.63% 61 16.58% 136
18.50% Eliminated
Yoshimasa Hayashi 38 10.35% 52,149 7.50% 27 7.34% 65
8.84%
Takayuki Kobayashi 41 11.17% 35,501 5.10% 19 5.16% 60
8.16%
Toshimitsu Motegi 34 9.26% 26,081 3.75% 13 3.53% 47
6.39%
Yōko Kamikawa 23 6.27% 32,899 4.73% 17 4.62% 40
5.44%
Taro Kono 22 5.99% 14,971 2.15% 8 2.17% 30
4.08%
Katsunobu Katō 16 4.36% 11,942 1.72% 6 1.63% 22
2.99%
Total 367 100.00% 695,536 100.00% 368 100.00% 735 100.00% 362 100.00% 47 100.00% 409 100.00%
Valid votes 367 100.00% 695,536 99.57% 368 100.00% 735 100.00% 362 98.64% 47 100.00% 409 98.79%
Invalid and blank votes 0 0.00% 3,009 0.43% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 5 1.36% 0 0.00% 5 1.21%
Turnout 367 99.73% 698,545 66.16% 368 100.00% 735 99.86% 367 99.73% 47 100.00% 414 99.76%
Registered voters 368 100.00% 1,055,839 100.00% 368 100.00% 736 100.00% 368 100.00% 47 100.00% 415 100.00%

Results of Party Members' Votes by Prefectures (First Round)

[edit]
Results of Party Members' Votes by Prefectures[210][211]
Prefectures Sanae Takaichi Shigeru Ishiba Shinjirō Koizumi Yoshimasa Hayashi Takayuki Kobayashi Yōko Kamikawa Toshimitsu Motegi Taro Kono Katsunobu Kato
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Aichi 13,121 36.2% 10,030 27.6% 5,564 15.3％ 1,442 4.0% 2,952 8.1% 1,083 3.0% 488 1.3% 1,385 3.8% 211 0.6%
Akita 1,517 20.1% 2,934 38.9% 1,895 25.1% 454 6.0% 140 1.9% 168 2.2% 40 0.5% 92 1.2% 299 4.0%
Aomori 1,721 22.1% 2,290 29.5% 1,811 23.3% 688 8.8% 726 9.3% 342 4.4% 75 1.0% 86 1.1% 36 0.5%
Chiba 5,917 29.6% 5,184 25.9% 2,808 14.0% 448 2.2% 4,473 22.4% 460 2.3% 287 1.4% 331 1.7% 99 0.5%
Ehime 3,601 29.3% 3,780 30.8% 2,464 20.1% 695 5.7% 1,004 8.2% 342 2.8% 169 1.4% 160 1.3% 72 0.6%
Fukui 2,767 38.5% 2,326 32.4% 941 13.1% 312 4.3% 262 3.6% 258 3.6% 165 2.3% 109 1.5% 39 0.5%
Fukuoka 6,967 36.1% 4,171 21.6% 3,094 16.0% 2,823 14.6% 864 4.5% 537 2.8% 178 0.9% 538 2.8% 129 0.7%
Fukushima 2,116 21.9% 3,452 35.7% 2,090 21.6% 805 8.3% 314 3.2% 466 4.8% 142 1.5% 95 1.0% 183 1.9%
Gifu 6,484 26.4% 7,389 30.1% 5,042 20.6% 2,271 9.3% 740 3.0% 839 3.4% 937 3.8% 694 2.8% 126 0.5%
Gunma 3,732 22.3% 5,212 31.2% 2,430 14.6% 625 3.7% 1,753 10.5% 462 2.8% 2,007 12.0% 376 2.3% 101 0.6%
Hiroshima 4,454 25.0% 4,073 22.9% 2,286 12.8% 4,197 23.6% 622 3.5% 953 5.4% 921 5.2% 143 0.8% 160 0.9%
Hokkaido 7,651 30.9% 7,663 31.0% 3,555 14.4% 1,842 7.4% 1,766 7.1% 548 2.2% 1,183 4.8% 392 1.6% 147 0.6%
Hyōgo 8,166 43.2% 5,639 29.8% 2,033 10.8% 1,205 6.4% 630 3.3% 685 3.6% 177 0.9% 234 1.2% 140 0.7%
Ibaraki 5,520 21.5% 9,523 37.0% 4,076 15.9% 1,114 4.3% 743 2.9% 848 3.3% 3,231 12.6% 553 2.2% 101 0.4%
Ishikawa 4,250 30.1% 3,562 25.3% 3,124 22.2% 1,556 11.0% 708 5.0% 481 3.4% 151 1.1% 177 1.3% 92 0.7%
Iwate 1,182 22.6% 1,811 34.7% 1,022 19.6% 492 9.4% 218 4.2% 354 6.8% 48 0.9% 64 1.2% 31 0.6%
Kagawa 3,965 35.8% 2,727 24.6% 1,768 16.0% 694 6.3% 1,268 11.4% 313 2.8% 104 0.9% 149 1.3% 90 0.8%
Kagoshima 2,936 25.1% 4,118 35.3% 2,976 25.5% 661 5.7% 359 3.1% 328 2.8% 101 0.9% 134 1.1% 65 0.6%
Kanagawa 11,272 26.6% 7,890 18.6% 15,082 35.6% 925 2.2% 1,523 3.6% 993 2.3% 255 0.6% 4,315 10.2% 159 0.4%
Kōchi 1,908 36.0% 2,009 37.9% 797 15.0% 245 4.6% 103 1.9% 129 2.4% 29 0.5% 61 1.2% 21 0.4%
Kumamoto 2,760 22.5% 3,212 26.2% 2,587 21.1% 1,994 16.3% 282 2.3% 264 2.2% 796 6.5% 308 2.5% 66 0.5%
Kyoto 3,643 39.6% 2,454 26.7% 1,323 14.4% 656 7.1% 585 6.4% 237 2.6% 108 1.2% 98 1.1% 88 1.0%
Mie 2,389 27.6% 1,898 21.9% 1,334 15.4% 1,356 15.6% 1,245 14.4% 194 2.2% 141 1.6% 71 0.8% 38 0.4%
Miyagi 2,778 30.3% 2,443 26.7% 1,725 18.8% 1,316 14.4% 246 2.7% 302 3.3% 163 1.8% 143 1.6% 39 0.4%
Miyazaki 2,133 25.5% 2,595 31.0% 1,951 23.3% 1,160 13.9% 142 1.7% 188 2.2% 79 0.9% 63 0.8% 52 0.6%
Nagano 3,289 32.6% 2,788 27.6% 1,325 13.1% 1,162 11.5% 654 6.5% 566 5.6% 113 1.1% 129 1.3% 73 0.7%
Nagasaki 3,787 30.1% 3,607 28.6% 1,955 15.5% 2,122 16.8% 303 2.4% 347 2.8% 163 1.3% 131 1.0% 186 1.5%
Nara 6,005 78.1% 775 10.1% 320 4.2% 136 1.8% 259 3.4% 115 1.5% 22 0.3% 35 0.5% 17 0.2%
Niigata 4,713 28.6% 4,597 27.9% 3,501 21.2% 1,051 6.4% 1,704 10.3% 482 2.9% 135 0.8% 212 1.3% 89 0.5%
Ōita 3,290 31.7% 4,148 39.9% 1,573 15.1% 579 5.6% 272 2.6% 309 3.0% 90 0.9% 95 0.9% 37 0.4%
Okayama 3,038 22.0% 2,870 20.8% 989 7.2% 120 0.9% 212 1.5% 236 1.7% 50 0.4% 95 0.7% 6,181 44.8%
Okinawa 1,055 21.3% 1,476 29.8% 1,271 25.6% 400 8.1% 97 2.0% 109 2.2% 190 3.8% 29 0.6% 330 6.7%
Osaka 9,985 45.5% 5,156 23.5% 2,482 11.3% 1,353 6.2% 925 4.2% 861 3.9% 425 1.9% 455 2.1% 288 1.3%
Saga 1,782 26.9% 2,387 36.1% 1,129 17.1% 387 5.8% 454 6.9% 144 2.2% 219 3.3% 71 1.1% 44 0.7%
Saitama 8,033 31.2% 7,532 29.3% 4,649 18.1% 1,459 5.7% 934 3.6% 1,328 5.2% 1,273 4.9% 337 1.3% 191 0.7%
Shiga 2,175 31.6% 2,259 32.8% 1,211 17.6% 529 7.7% 199 2.9% 194 2.8% 66 1.0% 76 1.1% 180 2.6%
Shimane 1,379 16.0% 5,332 62.0% 593 6.9% 227 2.6% 126 1.5% 167 1.9% 100 1.2% 36 0.4% 637 7.4%
Shizuoka 5,085 22.2% 5,303 23.1% 2,019 8.8% 202 0.9% 397 1.7% 9,601 41.9% 95 0.4% 176 0.8% 57 0.2%
Tochigi 1,961 14.8% 2,048 15.5% 1,422 10.8% 108 0.8% 154 1.2% 163 1.2% 7,224 54.6% 62 0.5% 82 0.6%
Tokushima 1,464 27.9% 1,682 32.1% 834 15.9% 75 1.4% 141 2.7% 939 17.9% 46 0.9% 40 0.8% 27 0.5%
Tokyo 19,915 34.3% 16,913 29.2% 9,401 16.2% 2,986 5.1% 2,791 4.8% 2,623 4.5% 1,081 1.9% 1,707 2.9% 601 1.0%
Tottori 548 6.5% 7,635 90.7% 73 0.9% 21 0.2% 83 1.0% 25 0.3% 4 0.1% 11 0.1% 13 0.2%
Toyama 4,969 27.3% 7,376 40.5% 2,591 14.2% 621 3.4% 684 3.8% 628 3.4% 982 5.4% 234 1.3% 144 0.8%
Wakayama 2,462 29.5% 3,151 37.8% 1,115 13.4% 756 9.1% 574 6.9% 102 1.2% 45 0.5% 81 1.0% 56 0.7%
Yamagata 1,179 15.6% 3,345 44.4% 1,312 17.4% 579 7.7% 119 1.6% 186 2.5% 730 9.7% 60 0.8% 27 0.4%
Yamaguchi 2,647 22.4% 1,091 9.2% 634 5.4% 6,650 56.3% 491 4.2% 156 1.3% 38 0.3% 59 0.5% 40 0.3%
Yamanashi 2,091 20.6% 2,702 26.6% 1,456 14.4% 650 6.4% 260 2.6% 1,844 18.2% 1,015 10.0% 69 0.7% 58 0.6%
Total 203,802 29.3% 202,558 29.1% 115,633 16.6% 52,149 7.5% 35,501 5.1% 32,899 4,7% 26,081 3.8% 14,971 2.2% 11.942 1.7%

Aftermath

[edit]

Following Ishiba's victory, it was described that he had planned on providing Koizumi a more prominent role in the LDP while Takaichi declined any cabinet positions in Ishiba's government.[212] Ishiba would go on to appoint former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as vice president of the party, while promoting outgoing Vice President Taro Aso as a chief advisor, with Hiroshi Moriyama becoming secretary general of the party. The appointments were seen as Ishiba's effort to stabilize the party.[213]

Ishiba was sworn-in as the 65th Prime Minister of Japan on 1 October and immediately formed his cabinet.[214]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Seat to be eliminated at the next general election.
  2. ^ None of these: 8%; Don't know: 12%
  3. ^ Shigeharu Aoyama: 2,4% (0.9%); Ken Saitō: 0.6% (0.5%); Seiko Noda: 0.6% (0%)
  4. ^ None of these: 12.0%; Don't know: 15.8%
  5. ^ Shigeharu Aoyama: 2,4%; Seiko Noda: 1.4%
  6. ^ None of these: 6.5%
  7. ^ Among members or allies of LDP.
  8. ^ Shigeharu Aoyama: (3%); Seiko Noda: (1%)
  9. ^ Shigeharu Aoyama: 2.7%; Seiko Noda: 0.7%; Ken Saitō: 0.3%
  10. ^ Others: 3%; Seiko Noda: 2%; Ken Saitō: 0%
  11. ^ Seiko Noda: 1%
  12. ^ None of these: 22%
  13. ^ Ken Saitō: 1%
  14. ^ None of these: 12%; Undecided and Don't know: 7%; No answer: 1%
  15. ^ Shigeharu Aoyama: 1.6%; Seiko Noda: 1.3%; Ken Saitō: 0.2%
  16. ^ Seiko Noda: 1%
  17. ^ None of these: 10%
  18. ^ Seiko Noda: 1%; Ken Saitō: 1%
  19. ^ Seiko Noda: 2.4%; Others: 5.2%
  20. ^ Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.8%
  21. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%
  22. ^ Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.1%
  23. ^ None of these: 21.8%
  24. ^ Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.7%; Another MP: 0.4%
  25. ^ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 7%
  26. ^ Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%
  27. ^ None of these: 13%
  28. ^ Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.8%
  29. ^ Another government politician: 3%; An opposition politician: 6%
  30. ^ Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%
  31. ^ None of these: 11%
  32. ^ Kenta Izumi (CDP): 1.7%
  33. ^ None of these: 27.7%
  34. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%
  35. ^ None of these: 11%
  36. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%
  37. ^ None of these: 15%
  38. ^ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 6%
  39. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 0.7%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.4%; Kōichi Hagiuda: 0.3%
  40. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.3%; Another MP: 2.5%
  41. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%
  42. ^ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 5%
  43. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%
  44. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  45. ^ Taro Yamamoto (Reiwa): 3%
  46. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%; Another MP: 1%
  47. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%; Another MP: 1%
  48. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1.2%; Another MP: 1.5%
  49. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 1%
  50. ^ None of these: 11%; No answer: 12%
  51. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 1%; Another MP: 0%
  52. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%; Another MP: 0%
  53. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Kōichi Hagiuda: 1%
  54. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2.3%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2.1%; Another MP: 1.4%
  55. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  56. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1.4%; Another MP: 1.6%
  57. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  58. ^ Taro Yamamoto (Reiwa): 2%; Hirofumi Yoshimura (Ishin): 2%; Tōru Hashimoto (Ishin): 1%; Yuriko Koike (Ind.): 1%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 1%
  59. ^ Tōru Hashimoto (Ishin): 2.1%; Hirofumi Yoshimura (Ishin): 1.9%; Taro Yamamoto (Reiwa): 1.4%
  60. ^ Tōru Hashimoto (Ishin): 4.7%; Taro Yamamoto (Reiwa): 3.3%

References

[edit]
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