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Next Portuguese legislative election
← 2024 On or before 8 October 2028
All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Luís Montenegro no Cimeira Luso-Espanhola 2024.jpg
Pedro Nuno Santos, projecto da alta velocidade Lisboa-Porto-Vigo (2022-10-01), cropped.png
André Ventura VIVA 24.jpg
Leader Luís Montenegro Pedro Nuno Santos André Ventura
Party PSD PS CH
Alliance AD
Leader since 28 May 2022[a] 16 December 2023 9 April 2019
Leader's seat Lisbon Aveiro Lisbon
Last election 80 seats, 28.8%[b] 78 seats, 28.0% 50 seats, 18.1%
Seats needed Increase 36 Increase 38 Increase 66
 
Rui rocha agencia lusa 2024.png
Mariana Mortágua, legislativas 2024 (53527512817) (cropped).jpg
Paulo Raimundo (Agência Lusa 2023-10-18) (cropped).png
Leader Rui Rocha Mariana Mortágua Paulo Raimundo
Party IL BE PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 22 January 2023 28 May 2023 12 November 2022
Leader's seat Braga Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 8 seats, 4.9% 5 seats, 4.4% 4 seats, 3.2%[c]
Seats needed Increase 108 Increase 111 Increase 112
 
Rui Tavares 2022.png
Inês_Sousa_Real.jpg
Leader Rui Tavares[d] Inês Sousa Real
Party LIVRE PAN
Leader since 12 May 2024 6 June 2021
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 4 seats, 3.2% 1 seat, 2.0%
Seats needed Increase 112 Increase 115
Portuguese electoral districts 2024 circles.svg
Incumbent Prime Minister

Luís Montenegro
PSD



The next legislative election in Portugal will take place on or before 8 October 2028 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.

Due to the instability of the minority government led by Luís Montenegro, the likelihood of a snap election well before the scheduled end of the current Parliament in 2028 is considered to be very high.[2]

Background

[edit]

The Democratic Alliance (AD), composed by Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM), led by PSD leader Luís Montenegro, won by a very narrow margin the 2024 legislative election with almost 29 percent of the votes and 80 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The Socialist Party (PS), in power between 2015 and 2024 and led by Pedro Nuno Santos, elected in the aftermath of the resignation of then Prime Minister António Costa due to an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses,[3] suffered a big decrease in support winning 28 percent of the votes and 78 seats. The populist/far-right party Chega (CH) surged in the elections, gathering 18 percent of the votes and 50 seats in Parliament, the best result for third party in decades and becoming kingmaker.[4] The Liberal Initiative (IL) was able to hold on to their eight seats and gather five percent of the votes. The left-wing/far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved, again, disappointing results with BE holding on to their five seats and four percent of the votes, while the Communists' alliance got their worst result ever with just three percent of the votes and four seats. LIVRE nearly surpassed PCP by gathering also three percent of the votes and four seats. People Animals Nature (PAN) was able to win just one seat.[5]

Eleven days after election day, on 21 March 2024, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, a minority one in this case.[6] The new government was sworn into office on 2 April 2024.[6]

2025 budget crisis

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With the lack of a workable majority, the AD minority government is forced to negotiate with Opposition parties to pass major legislation and this created problems regarding the prospects of a budget for 2025.[7] The Government decided to negotiate with the Socialist Party (PS),[8] however, the odds of a positive outcome from these negotiations were slim as the PS rejected the corporate tax cuts and the proposed "Youth IRS" scheme, which would provide an income tax rate cut for young people under the age of 35, and accused the government of not giving in.[9] President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warned that a lack of a deal could lead to snap legislative elections,[10] and admitted he was putting pressure on both the major parties to reach a deal.[11]

On 3 October 2024, Luís Montenegro "dropped" several parts of his government's Youth IRS scheme and corporate tax cuts by bringing his new proposals closer to policies defended by the PS, calling it an "irrefutable proposal" for the Socialists.[12] Pedro Nuno Santos recognized the concessions made by the government, but pressed for more conditions on corporate tax cuts, mainly on their timing.[13] The Prime Minister rejected these last conditions made by the PS, but said he was "confident" in the budget being approved by Parliament.[14]

On 17 October 2024, the general-secretary of the PS, Pedro Nuno Santos, announced that the Socialist Party would abstain in the budget vote, thus ensuring the approval of the document with the sole votes of the AD coalition.[15] On 31 October, Parliament passed the budget in its first general reading by a 80-72 vote, with the 78 PS members abstaining. On the final vote, on 29 November 2024, the budget was confirmed by a 79-72 vote, with 77 PS members abstaining.[16]

Leadership changes and challenges

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Liberal Initiative

[edit]

On 8 April 2024, former 2021 Presidential candidate Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, announced a manifesto called "United by liberalism" and said he will be a candidate for the party's leadership when a ballot arrives, thus challenging incumbent leader Rui Rocha.[17] On 20 June 2024, Mayan Gonçalves officially launched his bid for the party's leadership.[18] After it was revealed that Tiago Mayan forged signatures under his role as Parish President of Aldoar, Foz do Douro e Nevogilde, he dropped out from the leadership race.[19] A leadership convention is scheduled for 1 and 2 February 2025[20], with party leader Rui Rocha running for another term.[21] After the withdrawal of Mayan Gonçalves, Rui Malheiro, a party councillor, is set to run against Rui Rocha.[22]

Date

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According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[23] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 8 October 2028.[24]

The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his/her own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President can appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government, or dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

Electoral system

[edit]

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[25]

The number of seats assigned to each constituency depends on the district magnitude.[26] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[27]

The distribution of MPs by constituency for the 2024 legislative election was the following:[28]

Constituency Number of MPs Map
Lisbon 48
Porto 40
Braga and Setúbal 19
Aveiro 16
Leiria 10
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém 9
Viseu 8
Madeira 6
Azores, Viana do Castelo and Vila Real 5
Castelo Branco 4
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda 3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties

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The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.

Name Ideology Political position Leader 2024 result Status
% Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism Centre-right Luís Montenegro
28.8%
[b]
78 / 230
 Governing coalition
CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
CDS – Partido Popular 		Christian democracy
Conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Nuno Melo
2 / 230
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy
Progressivism 		Centre-left Pedro Nuno Santos 28.0%
78 / 230
 Opposition
CH Enough!
Chega! 		National conservatism
Right-wing populism 		Right-wing
to far-right 		André Ventura 18.1%
50 / 230
IL Liberal Initiative
Iniciativa Liberal 		Classical liberalism
Right-libertarianism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Rui Rocha 4.9%
8 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda 		Democratic socialism
Left-wing populism 		Left-wing
to far-left 		Mariana Mortágua 4.4%
5 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism
Marxism-Leninism 		Left-wing
to far-left 		Paulo Raimundo 3.2%
[c]
4 / 230
L FREE
LIVRE 		Green politics
Pro-Europeanism 		Centre-left
to left-wing 		Rui Tavares 3.2%
4 / 230
PAN People Animals Nature
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza 		Animal welfare
Environmentalism 		Centre-left[e] Inês Sousa Real 2.0%
1 / 230

Opinion polling

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Main article: Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election § Graphical Summary.[edit]
Graph of the polling for the next Portuguese Legislative Election with 14 day average bar chart.
Graph of the polling for the next Portuguese Legislative Election with 14 day average bar chart.

Polling aggregations

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Polling aggregator Last update
Aliança Democrática 2024 (Portugal) logo.png
 PS CH IL BE CDU L PAN Lead
PolitPro 10 Dec 2024 29.6 29.4 17.1 7.5 5.0 3.0 3.5 2.8 0.2
Politico 27 Nov 2024 29 28 16 7 5 3 3 3 1
Marktest 27 Nov 2024 29.3 29.3 17.2 7.6 4.9 3.0 3.7 2.8 Tie
Renascença 16 Nov 2024 29.9 29.3 16.9 6.6 4.2 2.7 3.7 2.2 0.6
Europe Elects 20 Oct 2024 32 30 16 7 5 3 3 2 2
2024 legislative election 10 March 2024 28.8
80 		28.0
78 		18.1
50 		4.9
8 		4.4
5 		3.2
4 		3.2
4 		2.0
1 		0.8

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD).
  2. ^ a b The Social Democratic Party (PPD/PSD), the CDS - People's Party (CDS-PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM) contested the 2024 election in a coalition called Democratic Alliance (AD) and won a combined 28.8% of the vote and elected 80 MPs to parliament. 78 of the MPs elected in 2024 are from PPD/PSD, while CDS-PP elected 2. PPM did not elect any MPs.
  3. ^ a b The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2024 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 3.2% of the vote and elected 4 MPs to parliament. The 4 MPs elected in 2024 are all from PCP. PEV elected zero.
  4. ^ LIVRE has no formal single leader; the party has a 15-member leadership committee of which Rui Tavares serves as spokesperson.[1]
  5. ^ Some sources state that People Animals Nature (PAN) is neither on the left nor the right.[29]

References

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  1. ^ ""É uma noite triste para o Livre": Rui Tavares assume derrota, Paupério diz que "nada acaba aqui" e já olha para 2029". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  2. ^ "Tomadas de posse, eleições e risco de dissolução marcam o calendário político de Montenegro". ECO (in Portuguese). 22 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  3. ^ "António Costa demite-se: "Obviamente"". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 12 November 2023. Retrieved 7 November 2023.
  4. ^ "Chega é um dos grandes vencedores destas eleições". RTP. 11 March 2024. Retrieved 28 March 2024.
  5. ^ "Diário da República, 1.ª série, n.º 59-A/2024". diariodarepublica.pt. Retrieved 23 March 2024.
  6. ^ a b "Portugal's centre-right leader Luis Montenegro appointed prime minister". France 24. 21 March 2024. Archived from the original on 21 March 2024. Retrieved 21 March 2024.
  7. ^ "Marcelo aumenta pressão: "Um Governo que está pendurado por um fio fraco, que é uma maioria fraca, sem orçamento fica pendurado por linhas"". Observador (in Portuguese). 29 September 2024. Retrieved 30 September 2024.
  8. ^ "Governo e PS tentam aproximar posições sobre o Orçamento do Estado para 2025". ECO (in Portuguese). 11 September 2024. Retrieved 30 September 2024.
  9. ^ "PS só viabiliza Orçamento para 2025 sem IRS Jovem e IRC do Governo". Euronews (in Portuguese). 27 September 2024. Retrieved 30 September 2024.
  10. ^ "Marcelo deve avançar para eleições antecipadas se Orçamento do Estado for chumbado". SIC Notícias (in Portuguese). 19 September 2024. Retrieved 30 September 2024.
  11. ^ ""Estou a fazer pressão". Marcelo volta a instar Governo e PS a entenderem-se no Orçamento". RTP (in Portuguese). 30 September 2024. Retrieved 30 September 2024.
  12. ^ "A "proposta irrecusável" de Montenegro: IRC com recuo de 1%, IRS Jovem custa 645 milhões de euros". TSF (in Portuguese). 3 October 2024. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
  13. ^ "OE2025: Pedro Nuno Santos reforça que "estamos a caminho da solução do impasse", tendo já entregue contraproposta ao Governo". Sapo (in Portuguese). 4 October 2024. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
  14. ^ "A grande entrevista de Luís Montenegro à SIC, nas vésperas da entrega do Orçamento do Estado". SIC Notícias (in Portuguese). 8 October 2024. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
  15. ^ "OE2025: a declaração de Pedro Nuno Santos". SIC Notícias (in Portuguese). 17 October 2024. Retrieved 17 October 2024.
  16. ^ "Orçamento aprovado. Abstenção do PS viabilizou documento". RTP (in Portuguese). 29 November 2024. Retrieved 30 November 2024.
  17. ^ "Tiago Mayan pronto para encabeçar candidatura à liderança da IL quer refundar partido". ECO (in Portuguese). 8 April 2024. Retrieved 8 April 2024.
  18. ^ "Tiago Mayan Gonçalves candidata-se à liderança da IL para tornar o partido ambicioso". Expresso (in Portuguese). 20 July 2024. Retrieved 20 July 2024.
  19. ^ "Tiago Mayan desiste da candidatura à liderança da Iniciativa Liberal". Notícias ao Minuto (in Portuguese). 8 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  20. ^ "Convenção Nacional da IL marcada para Fevereiro na zona de Lisboa". Público (in Portuguese). 30 November 2024. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  21. ^ "Rui Rocha anuncia recandidatura à liderança da Iniciativa Liberal". Público (in Portuguese). 9 December 2024. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  22. ^ "IL: Rui Malheiro oficializa no sábado candidatura alternativa à liderança". Expresso (in Portuguese). 10 December 2024. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  23. ^ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 October 2014. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  24. ^ "Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic" (PDF).
  25. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016.
  26. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 21 October 2015.
  27. ^ Gallagher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities" (PDF).
  28. ^ "Mapa Oficial n.º 1-A/2024" (PDF). CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 16 January 2024.
  29. ^ Martins, Paula (25 January 2022). "The politics of Portugal – who are the parties?". Reuters. Archived from the original on 18 November 2022. Retrieved 7 February 2022.
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