Oreshnik (missile)
| Oreshnik | |
|---|---|
| Type | Intermediate-range ballistic missile |
| Place of origin | Russia |
| Service history | |
| Wars | Russo-Ukrainian War |
| Production history | |
| Developed from | RS-26 Rubezh |
| Specifications | |
| Warhead | Nuclear/conventional |
| Maximum speed | Over Mach 10 (12,300 km/h; 7,610 mph; 3.40 km/s)[1] |
Oreshnik (Russian: Орешник, lit. 'Hazel tree'),[2] is a Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) characterized by its reported speed exceeding Mach 10 (12,300 km/h; 7,610 mph; 3.40 km/s), according to the Ukrainian military. The missile is equipped with six warheads, each reportedly containing submunitions,[3] and has been described as highly difficult to intercept, though modern ballistic missile interceptors are designed to counter this type of system.[4][5] Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh has identified the Oreshnik as a variant of the RS-26 Rubezh IRBM.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the strategic importance of the Oreshnik, claiming on 28 November 2024 that its mass production had started.[6]
History
Development
Oreshnik is believed to be derived from the RS-26 Rubezh IRBM, which has been test-fired five times but never entered service.[5] According to experts, the Oreshnik likely removed a booster stage from the RS-26, reducing its range.[5]
First operational use
The Oreshnik saw its first confirmed operational use on 21 November 2024, during the Russo-Ukrainian War. The missile was employed in an attack on Ukraine's PA Pivdenmash facility in Dnipro.[7] Initially, Ukrainian reports speculated that the attack involved an intercontinental ballistic missile;[4] however, subsequent assessments identified the Oreshnik as the weapon used. The missile was launched from Astrakhan Oblast, likely the Kapustin Yar training ground.[4] It reportedly carried a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload, as suggested by unverified footage.[3] Later analyses indicated the strike may not have involved explosives and was potentially intended as a political demonstration.[8] According to senior Ukrainian officials, the missile was equipped with "dummy" warheads that lacked explosives, prompting U.S. experts to describe the method as an "expensive way to deliver not that much destruction".[9][5] Despite that, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that Oreshnik's warheads, even inert, can cause "a lot of damage" because of the kinetic energy created by their hypersonic speed.[10] The launch appears to have been conducted with a lofted trajectory.[5] Eyewitness accounts described prolonged explosions lasting up to three hours.[11]
Capabilities and challenges
Interception difficulties
The missile's MIRV payload distinguishes it from other nuclear-capable missiles used against Ukraine, making it exceptionally challenging for Ukraine to intercept with its current defenses, according to a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).[4] Ukrainian military analysts stated that the Oreshnik travels through the upper atmosphere, undetectable by Ukraine's air defense systems. This capability renders interception effectively impossible by Ukraine's missile defense systems; though modern interceptors not present in Ukraine, such as Israel's Arrow 3 and the U.S. SM-3 Block 2A are specifically designed to defeat this type of threat.[4][5]
Experimental nature
U.S. officials have noted that the Oreshnik remains experimental despite its advanced features. Though Putin has emphasized claims of the experimental nature of the system and its hypersonic capability, according to several military experts, the weapon is actually an application of old technology used for many years in ICBMs.[5] According to nonproliferation expert Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, none of the technology in Oreshnik is novel or represents a dramatic change in the way that conventional weapons are developed; rather, it was "a series of old technologies that have been put together in a new way."[5] A defense expert at the University of Oslo suggested that it likely incorporates no more than 10% new components.[12] Russia is believed to possess only a limited number of units, making regular deployment against Ukraine improbable.[3]
Accuracy challenges
Experts have noted that the accuracy of Oreshnik, as demonstrated in the footage from the Dnipro strike, is sufficient for delivering a nuclear payload but not for a conventional one.[5] According to William Alberque of the Henry L. Stimson Center, "If Russia is working on a MIRV with a conventional CEP, we’ve never seen it."[5] Other experts have noted that the accuracy concerns from Oreshnik's warheads could be mitigated by using submunitions.[5]
See also
References
- ^ "Russian missile reached speed of more than 8,000 miles per hour, Ukraine says". Reuters. 22 November 2024. Retrieved 22 November 2024.
- ^ Faulconbridge, Guy; Bobrova, Marina; Rodionov, Maxim (21 November 2024). "Putin says Russia fired High-hypersonic ballistic missile at Ukraine in warning to the West". Reuters. Retrieved 21 November 2024.
- ^ a b c "Putin touts Russia's new missile and delivers a menacing warning to NATO". Associated Press. 21 November 2024. Retrieved 22 November 2024.
- ^ a b c d e Santora, Marc; Jakes, Lara; Hopkins, Valerie; Kramer, Andrew E.; Schmitt, Eric (21 November 2024). "With Use of New Missile, Russia Sends a Threatening Message to the West". The New York Times. Retrieved 22 November 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Doyle, Gerry; Balmforth, Tom; Zafra, Mariano (28 November 2024). "Enter 'Oreshnik'". Reuters. Retrieved 9 December 2024.
- ^ Cailler, Adam (28 November 2024). "Putin's mass production of Russia's new Oreshnik missile has started as WW3 fears rise". MSN. Archived from the original on 30 November 2024. Retrieved 30 November 2024.
- ^ "Russia Fired ICBM for First Time in War, Ukraine's Military Claims". The Moscow Times. 21 November 2024. Retrieved 21 November 2024.
- ^ Petrenko, Roman (23 November 2024). "New ballistic missile used by Russia to strike Dnipro on 21 November had no explosives and caused no destruction – Bild". Ukrainska Pravda.
- ^ Balmforth, Tom; Doyle, Gerry. "New Russian missile fired at Ukraine carried warheads without explosives, sources say". Reuters.
- ^ Jakes, Lara (27 November 2024). "What Is Russia's Oreshnik Ballistic Missile?". The New York Times. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
- ^ Comerford, Ruth (22 November 2024). "Ukraine war: Putin says Russia will use new Oreshnik missile again in 'combat conditions'". BBC Home. Retrieved 24 November 2024.
- ^ York, Chris; Fornusek, Martin (22 November 2024). "'Don't overreact' — Oreshnik missile isn't as new as Russia claims, experts say". Kyiv Independent.