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2024 United States presidential election in Illinois

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2024 United States presidential election in Illinois

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout70.42%
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 19 0
Popular vote 3,062,863 2,449,079
Percentage 54.37% 43.47%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Illinois voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Illinois has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College this election, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

Illinois is a strongly blue state in the Great Lakes region anchored by Chicago, with the sparsely populated southern region of the state being culturally influenced by the Upper South and Bible Belt. It has a reputation for being by far the most liberal state in the Great Lakes region. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election beginning in 1992 (doing so by at least 10% each time), including voting for Senator Barack Obama from Illinois in 2008 and 2012 and Chicago-born Hillary Clinton in 2016. This was the first election since 1868 in which Illinois did not have 20 or more electoral votes.

Illinois was won by the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Illinois shifted towards Trump, with current vote counts showing Harris winning the state by a 10.9% margin, six points down from Biden. The state’s red shift was caused by low Democratic turnout in Cook County, home to Chicago with Harris receiving about 300,000 fewer votes than Biden in Cook County, while Trump ran marginally ahead of his 2020 raw vote total in Chicago, Cook as a whole, and statewide.[2] Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without Kendall County or McLean County.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Illinois Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida,[a] Kansas, and Ohio.

Illinois Democratic primary, March 19, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 739,646 91.5% 147 147
Marianne Williamson 28,777 3.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 25,615 3.2%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) 14,513 1.8%
Total: 808,551 100.00% 147 27 174


Republican primary

[edit]

The Illinois Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Ohio.

Illinois Republican primary, March 19, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 479,556 80.50% 64 0 64
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 86,278 14.48% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 16,990 2.85% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 9,758 1.64% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 3,114 0.52% 0 0 0
Total: 595,696 100.00% 64 0 64

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

On August 23, 2024, the Illinois State Board of Elections met in Chicago and Springfield to certify the following list of candidates to appear on the general election ballot:

The board also issued rulings to the nomination papers of third party and independent candidates, including placeholder candidates for the Libertarian and Green Party tickets, as well as for Kennedy and Shanahan. Both the Libertarian and Green tickets were removed from the ballot, lacking the minimum required number of 25,000 valid signatures, while Kennedy remained.[5]

Campaign

[edit]

Convention

[edit]
Harris delivering her acceptance speech on the final day of the Democratic National Convention.

The 2024 Democratic National Convention was held from August 19 to 22, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago.[6] It was the first instance of a major party's presidential nominating convention held in Illinois since 1996.[7] Here, party delegates voted on their platform for the election and formally nominated vice president Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, with Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[8] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[9] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] Safe D June 13, 2024
CNalysis[12] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[13] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[14] Likely D August 23, 2024
538[15] Solid D October 2, 2024
RCP[16] Likely D June 26, 2024
NBC News[17] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[18] October 4–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42%
ActiVote[19] September 3 – October 5, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41%
ActiVote[20] August 6–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 643 (LV) 53% 40% 7%
Emerson College[22] October 1–4, 2023 468 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 34% 23%
Cor Strategies[23] August 24–27, 2023 811 (RV) 55% 35% 10%
Emerson College[24][B] October 20–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 37% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[25][C] October 10–11, 2022 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 42% 7%
Emerson College[26] September 21–23, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 38% 11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 643 (LV) 46% 43% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 643 (LV) 48% 37% 15%

J. B. Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[25] October 10–11, 2022 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 42% 7%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Cor Strategies[23] August 24–27, 2023 811 (RV) 53% 35% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Illinois[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic 3,062,863 54.37% Decrease 3.17%
Republican 2,449,079 43.47% Increase 2.92%
Independent 80,526 1.43% N/A
Green
(Write-in)
31,023 0.55% Increase 0.04%
Libertarian
(Write-in)
3,510 0.06% Decrease 1.04%
Socialism and Liberation
(Write-in)
2,877 0.05% Decrease 0.07%
American Solidarity
(Write-in)
1,391 0.03% Decrease 0.13%
Total write-ins,
including above
Various 40,942 0.73% Increase 0.06%
Total votes 5,633,310 100.00% N/A

By county

[edit]
County Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 8,111 25.53% 23,161 72.91% 494 1.56% −15,050 −47.38% 31,766
Alexander 904 39.81% 1,341 59.05% 26 1.14% −437 −19.24% 2,271
Bond 2,117 26.49% 5,692 71.23% 182 2.28% −3,575 −44.74% 7,991
Boone 10,159 41.88% 13,673 56.37% 424 1.75% −3,514 −14.49% 24,256
Brown 467 19.02% 1,938 78.94% 50 2.04% −1,471 −59.92% 2,455
Bureau 5,900 36.88% 9,784 61.15% 315 1.97% −3,884 −24.28% 15,999
Calhoun 560 20.90% 2,059 76.83% 61 2.28% −1,499 −55.93% 2,680
Carroll 2,600 33.16% 5,082 64.82% 158 2.02% −2,482 −31.66% 7,840
Cass 1,438 27.44% 3,712 70.83% 91 1.74% −2,274 −43.39% 5,241
Champaign 54,314 60.63% 32,965 36.80% 2,302 2.57% 21,349 23.83% 89,581
Christian 4,026 25.90% 11,278 72.55% 241 1.55% −7,252 −46.65% 15,545
Clark 1,927 23.48% 6,130 74.70% 149 1.82% −4,203 −51.22% 8,206
Clay 1,054 15.57% 5,610 82.88% 105 1.55% −4,556 −67.31% 6,769
Clinton 4,447 23.13% 14,407 74.92% 376 1.96% −9,960 −51.79% 19,230
Coles 7,495 34.85% 13,606 63.26% 406 1.89% −6,111 −28.41% 21,507
Cook 1,447,821 69.63% 583,852 28.08% 47,566 2.29% 863,969 41.55% 2,079,239
Crawford 2,048 22.92% 6,727 75.29% 160 1.79% −4,679 −52.37% 8,935
Cumberland 1,059 18.36% 4,627 80.20% 83 1.44% −3,568 −61.85% 5,769
DeKalb 23,648 49.89% 22,716 47.92% 1,037 2.19% 932 1.97% 47,401
DeWitt 2,058 26.53% 5,529 71.27% 171 2.20% −3,471 −44.74% 7,758
Douglas 2,198 26.14% 6,076 72.25% 136 1.62% −3,878 −46.11% 8,410
DuPage 251,164 54.97% 191,243 41.86% 14,475 3.17% 59,921 13.12% 456,882
Edgar 1,816 22.95% 5,955 75.27% 141 1.78% −4,139 −52.31% 7,912
Edwards 457 13.89% 2,794 84.95% 38 1.16% −2,337 −71.06% 3,289
Effingham 3,617 18.95% 15,124 79.25% 343 1.80% −11,507 −60.30% 19,084
Fayette 1,632 17.00% 7,847 81.73% 122 1.27% −6,215 −64.73% 9,601
Ford 1,643 25.07% 4,778 72.91% 132 2.01% −3,135 −47.84% 6,553
Franklin 4,257 24.06% 13,200 74.61% 235 1.33% −8,943 −50.55% 17,692
Fulton 6,980 37.04% 9,827 60.87% 337 2.09% −3,847 −23.83% 16,144
Gallatin 561 22.17% 1,923 76.01% 46 1.82% −1,362 −53.83% 2,530
Greene 1,220 20.15% 4,719 77.92% 117 1.93% −3,499 −57.78% 6,056
Grundy 9,143 34.39% 16,997 63.92% 449 1.69% −7,854 −29.54% 26,589
Hamilton 739 17.68% 3,385 80.96% 57 1.36% −2,646 −63.29% 4,181
Hancock 2,183 24.08% 6,708 74.00% 174 1.92% −4,525 −49.92% 9,065
Hardin 357 18.54% 1,546 80.27% 23 1.19% −1,189 −61.73% 1,926
Henderson 1,026 29.62% 2,369 68.39% 69 1.99% −1,343 −38.77% 3,464
Henry 9,226 36.77% 15,359 61.21% 507 2.02% −6,133 −24.44% 25,092
Iroquois 2,747 20.62% 10,376 77.87% 201 1.51% −7,629 −57.26% 13,324
Jackson 11,394 50.72% 10,614 47.25% 457 2.03% 780 3.47% 22,465
Jasper 912 16.81% 4,449 82.01% 64 1.18% −3,537 −65.20% 5,425
Jefferson 4,240 25.45% 12,189 73.15% 233 1.40% −7,949 −47.71% 16,662
Jersey 2,816 24.08% 8,684 74.26% 194 1.66% −5,868 −50.18% 11,694
Jo Daviess 5,051 40.69% 7,136 57.48% 227 1.83% −2,085 −16.80% 12,414
Johnson 1,241 20.33% 4,798 78.62% 64 1.05% −3,557 −58.28% 6,103
Kane 120,077 53.72% 99,260 44.40% 4,197 1.88% 20,817 9.31% 223,534
Kankakee 18,399 38.68% 28,285 59.46% 885 1.86% −9,886 −20.78% 47,569
Kendall 32,977 49.67% 31,970 48.15% 1,450 2.18% 1,007 1.52% 66,397
Knox 9,838 44.33% 11,917 53.70% 436 1.96% -2,079 −9.37% 22,191
Lake 184,642 59.39% 120,402 38.73% 5,869 1.89% 64,240 20.66% 310,193
LaSalle 21,029 40.05% 30,717 58.50% 762 1.45% −9,688 −18.45% 52,508
Lawrence 1,283 21.00% 4,715 77.17% 112 1.83% −3,432 −56.17% 6,110
Lee 6,105 37.89% 9,680 60.08% 328 2.04% −3,575 −22.19% 16,113
Livingston 4,311 26.05% 11,970 72.33% 268 1.62% −7,659 −46.28% 16,549
Logan 3,543 28.20% 8,757 69.70% 264 2.10% −5,214 −41.50% 12,564
Macon 18,009 39.72% 26,562 58.58% 770 1.70% −8,553 −18.86% 45,341
Macoupin 6,892 29.42% 16,065 68.58% 468 2.00% −9,173 −39.16% 23,425
Madison 56,341 42.34% 73,925 55.55% 2,806 2.11% −17,584 −13.21% 133,072
Marion 4,116 24.56% 12,409 74.03% 237 1.41% −8,293 −49.48% 16,782
Marshall 1,913 31.22% 4,119 67.23% 95 1.55% −2,206 −36.00% 6,127
Mason 1,773 27.82% 4,464 70.03% 137 2.15% −2,691 −42.22% 6,374
Massac 1,683 25.21% 4,939 73.98% 54 0.81% −3,256 −48.77% 6,676
McDonough 4,736 39.56% 6,987 58.36% 249 2.08% −2,251 −18.80% 11,972
McHenry 75,370 46.44% 83,933 51.72% 2,980 1.84% −8,563 −5.28% 162,283
McLean 44,495 51.43% 40,290 46.57% 1,737 2.01% 4,205 4.86% 86,522
Menard 1,834 28.52% 4,499 69.96% 98 1.52% −2,665 −41.44% 6,431
Mercer 2,950 35.35% 5,215 62.49% 181 2.17% −2,265 −27.14% 8,346
Monroe 6,473 30.97% 14,055 67.24% 374 1.79% −7,582 −36.27% 20,902
Montgomery 3,573 27.06% 9,378 71.03% 252 1.91% −5,805 −43.97% 13,203
Morgan 4,848 33.03% 9,607 65.46% 222 1.51% −4,759 −32.42% 14,677
Moultrie 1,615 24.74% 4,816 73.77% 97 1.49% −3,201 −49.03% 6,528
Ogle 8,883 34.43% 16,450 63.76% 466 1.81% −7,567 −29.33% 25,799
Peoria 40,564 51.26% 36,896 46.62% 1,678 2.12% 3,668 4.63% 79,138
Perry 2,146 23.21% 6,949 75.14% 153 1.65% −4,803 −51.94% 9,248
Piatt 3,204 33.70% 6,104 64.20% 200 2.10% −2,900 −30.50% 9,508
Pike 1,302 17.34% 6,086 81.05% 121 1.61% −4,784 −63.71% 7,509
Pope 416 19.50% 1,698 79.61% 19 0.89% −1,282 −60.10% 2,133
Pulaski 769 32.30% 1,583 66.48% 29 1.22% −814 −34.19% 2,381
Putnam 1,254 37.61% 2,014 60.41% 66 1.98% −760 −22.80% 3,395
Randolph 3,461 24.15% 10,624 74.12% 248 1.73% −7,163 −49.98% 14,333
Richland 1,747 22.53% 5,889 75.94% 119 1.53% −4,142 −53.41% 7,755
Rock Island 34,126 53.78% 28,061 44.22% 1,271 2.00% 6,065 9.56% 63,458
Saline 2,634 24.84% 7,830 73.83% 141 1.33% −5,196 −49.00% 10,065
Sangamon 46,074 46.46% 50,979 51.41% 2,118 2.14% −4,905 −4.95% 99,171
Schuyler 961 25.57% 2,720 72.36% 78 2.08% −1,759 −46.79% 3,759
Scott 488 18.86% 2,071 80.05% 28 1.08% −1,583 −61.19% 2,587
Shelby 2,240 19.19% 9,267 79.41% 163 1.40% −7,027 −60.21% 11,670
St. Clair 63,433 52.88% 54,021 45.03% 2,508 2.09% 9,412 7.85% 119,962
Stark 725 26.26% 1,983 71.82% 53 1.92% −1,258 −45.56% 2,761
Stephenson 8,278 39.43% 12,347 58.81% 370 1.76% −4,069 −19.38% 20,995
Tazewell 24,325 35.76% 42,451 62.40% 1,251 1.84% −18,126 −26.65% 68,027
Union 2,285 27.78% 5,837 70.96% 104 1.26% −3,552 −43.18% 8,226
Vermilion 9,254 31.32% 19,777 66.93% 518 1.75% −10,523 −35.61% 29,549
Wabash 1,200 22.32% 4,095 76.16% 82 1.53% −2,895 −53.84% 5,377
Warren 2,711 36.40% 4,579 61.49% 157 2.11% −1,868 −25.08% 7,447
Washington 1,561 20.68% 5,892 77.92% 106 1.40% −4,328 −57.23% 7,562
Wayne 1,155 13.96% 7,019 84.82% 101 1.22% −5,864 −70.86% 8,275
White 1,390 19.67% 5,586 79.04% 91 1.29% −4,196 −59.37% 7,067
Whiteside 11,012 41.64% 14,898 56.33% 537 2.03% −3,886 −14.69% 26,447
Will 162,874 49.72% 157,672 48.13% 7,058 2.15% 5,202 1.59% 327,604
Williamson 9,890 29.91% 22,686 68.60% 492 1.49% −12,796 −38.70% 33,068
Winnebago 59,942 49.40% 59,257 48.83% 2,148 1.77% 685 0.56% 121,347
Woodford 5,958 28.21% 14,837 70.24% 328 1.55% −8,879 −42.03% 21,123
Totals 3,062,863 54.37% 2,449,079 43.47% 121,368 2.16% 613,783 10.90% 5,633,310

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The state party only nominated Joe Biden as a candidate, cancelling the primary.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by WGN-TV
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by WBEZ & The Chicago Sun-Times

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Qin, Amy; Chicago Sun Times. "Trump's inroads in Chicago driven by staggering dropoff in votes for Democrats".
  3. ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". AP News. June 14, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  4. ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  5. ^ Keck, Patrick (August 27, 2024). "RFK Jr. remains on Illinois ballot; Green Party, Libertarian candidates removed". The State Journal-Register. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  6. ^ Homan, Maya (August 12, 2024). "The 2024 Democratic National Convention kicks off next week. Here's what to expect". USA TODAY (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  7. ^ Elving, Ron (August 12, 2024). "Chicago '68 recalls a Democratic convention and a political moment like no other". NPR (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  14. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  15. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (September 18, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  17. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  18. ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Harris's Steady Lead in Illinois". ActiVote.
  19. ^ Allis, Victor (October 6, 2024). "Harris Extends Lead in Illinois". ActiVote. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  20. ^ Allis, Victor (August 29, 2024). "Harris Leads by Double Digits in Illinois". ActiVote. Retrieved August 31, 2024.
  21. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  22. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "Illinois 2024 Poll: Biden Holds Nine-Point Lead Over Trump". Emerson Polling.
  23. ^ a b "Illinoisans Share Who They Support for President (Republican & Democrat Poll)". YouTube. August 30, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  24. ^ Bradley, Tahman; Muck, Jordan (October 26, 2022). "Poll: Illinois Democrats maintain large leads in race for governor, U.S. Senate, Sec Of State, Comptroller, Treasurer". WGN-TV.
  25. ^ a b McKinney, Dave (October 17, 2022). "Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll: Illinois voters don't want Pritzker or Biden to run for president – but they'd take either over Trump". Chicago Sun-Times.
  26. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 28, 2022). "Illinois 2022: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth in Strong Position in Re-election Bids". Emerson Polling.
  27. ^ "PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT". Illinois State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 3, 2024.