2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi
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| Elections in Mississippi |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Mississippi voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Mississippi's six votes in the Electoral College were unaffected by reapportionment after the 2020 United States census.[1]
Though Mississippi has voted to the left of its bordering states in recent presidential elections, owing mainly to its large African-American minority, the state is located in the Deep South and therefore the Bible Belt. One of the most socially conservative states in the nation, it has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Southerner Jimmy Carter's narrow statewide victory in 1976, nor has it been competitive at this level since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas fell five points short of carrying the state in 1996.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Donald Trump ran on the Republican ballot for a third consecutive time. He easily handled Mississippi in the past two election cycles, winning the state by 17.8% in 2016 and again by 16.5% four years later. Before the election, most news organizations considered Mississippi a safe win for Trump.
Trump received 60.9% of the vote in Mississippi, winning the state by a 22.9% margin. This marked the first time since 1984 that a Republican surpassed the 60% threshold in the state. He flipped several majority-Black counties: Copiah, Pike, and Yazoo Counties, which had not supported a Republican in a presidential race since 2004; Jasper County, which had last done so in 2000; and Issaquena County, which last did so in 1984. Trump also flipped plurality-White Marshall County, last won by a Republican in 1972, and plurality-Black Warren County, which Trump last won in 2016. He also flipped Oktibbeha County, home to Mississippi State University, which had last voted for a Republican in 2004.
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Mississippi Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, and Washington. 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[3]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 229,198 | 92.50% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 13,437 | 5.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 4,042 | 1.63% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,096 | 0.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 247,773 | 100.00% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
Democratic primary
[edit]The 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside the Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries, and Northern Mariana Islands caucuses. 40 delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[5]
In Mississippi, candidates have to pay a filing fee of $2,500 and gather at least 500 signatures to make the primary ballot.[6] Incumbent President Joe Biden won the primary, being the only candidate that met these requirements.[7][better source needed]
Winner
[edit]Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 87,922 | 98.7% | 35 | ||
| Write-in votes | 1,187 | 1.3% | |||
| Total: | 89,109 | 100.00% | 35 | 35 | |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[14] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Solid R | September 20, 2024 |
| RCP[17] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[19] | Likely R | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[20] | Safe R | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[21][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 423 (LV) | – | 50% | 37% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[21][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 423 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 13% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[22][B] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 409 (LV) | ± 7.8% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
Early voting
[edit]A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Mississippi is one of only three remaining states (along with Alabama and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[23]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 747,744 | 60.89% | +3.29% | ||
| Democratic | 466,668 | 38.00% | −3.06% | ||
| Independent |
|
5,387 | 0.44% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 2,536 | 0.21% | −0.40% | ||
| Green | 1,873 | 0.15% | +0.04% | ||
| Socialism and Liberation | 1,075 | 0.09% | N/A | ||
| Constitution | 1,030 | 0.08% | N/A | ||
| American Solidarity |
|
1,007 | 0.08% | −0.01% | |
| Independent |
|
688 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,228,008 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 5,081 | 42.60% | 6,743 | 56.53% | 104 | 0.87% | -1,662 | -13.93% | 11,928 |
| Alcorn | 12,657 | 83.75% | 2,328 | 15.40% | 127 | 0.85% | 10,329 | 68.35% | 15,112 |
| Amite | 4,484 | 65.80% | 2,246 | 32.96% | 85 | 1.24% | 2,238 | 32.84% | 6,815 |
| Attala | 4,723 | 61.31% | 2,930 | 38.04% | 50 | 0.65% | 1,793 | 23.27% | 7,703 |
| Benton | 2,535 | 65.27% | 1,318 | 33.93% | 31 | 0.80% | 1,217 | 31.34% | 3,884 |
| Bolivar | 3,943 | 37.79% | 6,419 | 61.51% | 73 | 0.70% | -2,476 | -23.72% | 10,435 |
| Calhoun | 4,443 | 73.63% | 1,547 | 25.64% | 44 | 0.73% | 2,896 | 47.99% | 6,034 |
| Carroll | 3,730 | 71.81% | 1,431 | 27.55% | 33 | 0.64% | 2,299 | 44.26% | 5,194 |
| Chickasaw | 4,079 | 56.39% | 3,090 | 42.71% | 65 | 0.90% | 989 | 13.68% | 7,234 |
| Choctaw | 2,881 | 74.06% | 965 | 24.81% | 44 | 1.13% | 1,916 | 49.25% | 3,890 |
| Claiborne | 558 | 15.76% | 2,950 | 83.31% | 33 | 0.93% | -2,392 | -67.55% | 3,541 |
| Clarke | 5,093 | 67.27% | 2,430 | 32.10% | 48 | 0.63% | 2,663 | 35.17% | 7,571 |
| Clay | 4,017 | 44.35% | 4,960 | 54.76% | 80 | 0.89% | -943 | -10.41% | 9,057 |
| Coahoma | 2,008 | 29.57% | 4,711 | 69.38% | 71 | 1.05% | -2,703 | -39.81% | 6,790 |
| Copiah | 6,134 | 52.58% | 5,426 | 46.52% | 105 | 0.90% | 708 | 6.06% | 11,665 |
| Covington | 5,869 | 66.23% | 2,921 | 32.96% | 71 | 0.81% | 2,948 | 33.27% | 8,861 |
| DeSoto | 48,064 | 60.65% | 29,023 | 36.62% | 2,167 | 2.73% | 19,041 | 24.03% | 79,254 |
| Forrest | 16,579 | 58.24% | 11,475 | 40.31% | 412 | 1.45% | 5,104 | 17.93% | 28,466 |
| Franklin | 2,831 | 69.63% | 1,213 | 29.83% | 22 | 0.54% | 1,618 | 39.80% | 4,066 |
| George | 9,858 | 89.06% | 1,138 | 10.28% | 73 | 0.66% | 8,720 | 78.78% | 11,069 |
| Greene | 4,776 | 84.55% | 835 | 14.78% | 38 | 0.67% | 3,941 | 69.77% | 5,649 |
| Grenada | 5,651 | 57.86% | 4,060 | 41.57% | 55 | 0.57% | 1,591 | 16.29% | 9,766 |
| Hancock | 16,684 | 78.79% | 4,262 | 20.13% | 229 | 1.08% | 12,422 | 58.66% | 21,175 |
| Harrison | 48,497 | 63.88% | 26,555 | 34.98% | 871 | 1.14% | 21,942 | 28.90% | 75,923 |
| Hinds | 22,816 | 26.19% | 62,840 | 72.12% | 1,472 | 1.69% | -40,024 | -45.93% | 87,128 |
| Holmes | 1,243 | 18.47% | 5,420 | 80.53% | 67 | 1.00% | -4,177 | -62.06% | 6,730 |
| Humphreys | 990 | 28.55% | 2,443 | 70.44% | 35 | 1.01% | -1,453 | -41.89% | 3,468 |
| Issaquena | 296 | 47.59% | 287 | 46.14% | 39 | 6.27% | 9 | 1.45% | 622 |
| Itawamba | 9,523 | 89.66% | 1,027 | 9.67% | 71 | 0.67% | 8,496 | 79.99% | 10,621 |
| Jackson | 36,376 | 69.29% | 15,469 | 29.47% | 652 | 1.24% | 20,907 | 39.82% | 52,497 |
| Jasper | 4,118 | 52.19% | 3,722 | 47.17% | 50 | 0.64% | 396 | 5.02% | 7,890 |
| Jefferson | 541 | 16.40% | 2,727 | 82.66% | 31 | 0.94% | -2,186 | -66.26% | 3,299 |
| Jefferson Davis | 2,302 | 42.80% | 3,041 | 56.55% | 35 | 0.65% | -739 | -13.75% | 5,378 |
| Jones | 20,265 | 73.01% | 7,272 | 26.20% | 218 | 0.79% | 12,993 | 46.81% | 27,755 |
| Kemper | 1,691 | 41.39% | 2,381 | 58.27% | 14 | 0.34% | -690 | -16.88% | 4,086 |
| Lafayette | 14,050 | 60.02% | 8,956 | 38.26% | 403 | 1.72% | 5,094 | 21.76% | 23,409 |
| Lamar | 20,775 | 73.51% | 7,038 | 24.90% | 449 | 1.59% | 13,737 | 48.61% | 28,262 |
| Lauderdale | 16,487 | 60.16% | 10,677 | 38.96% | 243 | 0.88% | 5,810 | 21.20% | 27,407 |
| Lawrence | 4,113 | 67.95% | 1,899 | 31.37% | 41 | 0.68% | 2,214 | 36.58% | 6,053 |
| Leake | 5,143 | 61.37% | 3,182 | 37.97% | 55 | 0.66% | 1,961 | 23.40% | 8,380 |
| Lee | 24,339 | 68.87% | 10,616 | 30.04% | 383 | 1.09% | 13,723 | 38.83% | 35,338 |
| Leflore | 2,854 | 30.29% | 6,476 | 68.74% | 91 | 0.97% | -3,622 | -38.45% | 9,421 |
| Lincoln | 11,432 | 72.35% | 4,262 | 26.97% | 108 | 0.68% | 7,170 | 45.38% | 15,802 |
| Lowndes | 13,087 | 53.58% | 11,096 | 45.43% | 243 | 0.99% | 1,991 | 8.15% | 24,426 |
| Madison | 32,333 | 57.80% | 22,700 | 40.58% | 902 | 1.62% | 9,633 | 17.22% | 55,935 |
| Marion | 7,874 | 70.25% | 3,215 | 28.68% | 119 | 1.07% | 4,659 | 41.57% | 11,208 |
| Marshall | 7,977 | 53.24% | 6,888 | 45.97% | 118 | 0.79% | 1,089 | 7.27% | 14,983 |
| Monroe | 10,861 | 67.59% | 5,090 | 31.68% | 118 | 0.73% | 5,771 | 35.91% | 16,069 |
| Montgomery | 2,658 | 60.08% | 1,737 | 39.26% | 29 | 0.66% | 921 | 20.82% | 4,424 |
| Neshoba | 8,154 | 74.99% | 2,622 | 24.11% | 97 | 0.90% | 5,532 | 50.88% | 10,873 |
| Newton | 6,641 | 71.23% | 2,603 | 27.92% | 79 | 0.85% | 4,038 | 43.31% | 9,323 |
| Noxubee | 1,151 | 25.87% | 3,269 | 73.48% | 29 | 0.65% | -2,118 | -47.61% | 4,449 |
| Oktibbeha | 8,901 | 49.13% | 8,851 | 48.86% | 364 | 2.01% | 50 | 0.27% | 18,116 |
| Panola | 8,202 | 56.87% | 6,061 | 42.03% | 159 | 1.10% | 2,141 | 14.84% | 14,422 |
| Pearl River | 20,438 | 82.74% | 3,982 | 16.12% | 281 | 1.14% | 16,456 | 66.62% | 24,701 |
| Perry | 4,425 | 79.89% | 1,078 | 19.46% | 36 | 0.65% | 3,347 | 60.43% | 5,539 |
| Pike | 7,943 | 51.18% | 7,402 | 47.70% | 174 | 1.12% | 541 | 3.48% | 15,519 |
| Pontotoc | 11,740 | 83.45% | 2,214 | 15.74% | 114 | 0.81% | 9,526 | 67.71% | 14,068 |
| Prentiss | 8,581 | 82.66% | 1,727 | 16.64% | 73 | 0.70% | 6,854 | 66.02% | 10,381 |
| Quitman | 902 | 33.69% | 1,725 | 64.44% | 50 | 1.87% | -823 | -30.75% | 2,677 |
| Rankin | 50,896 | 72.83% | 18,060 | 25.84% | 931 | 1.33% | 32,836 | 46.99% | 69,887 |
| Scott | 6,098 | 61.65% | 3,729 | 37.70% | 64 | 0.65% | 2,369 | 23.95% | 9,891 |
| Sharkey | 551 | 31.20% | 1,201 | 68.01% | 14 | 0.79% | -650 | -36.81% | 1,766 |
| Simpson | 7,552 | 68.07% | 3,479 | 31.36% | 63 | 0.57% | 4,073 | 36.71% | 11,094 |
| Smith | 6,146 | 80.07% | 1,486 | 19.36% | 44 | 0.57% | 4,660 | 60.71% | 7,676 |
| Stone | 6,214 | 78.47% | 1,620 | 20.46% | 85 | 1.07% | 4,594 | 58.01% | 7,919 |
| Sunflower | 2,515 | 31.93% | 5,312 | 67.45% | 49 | 0.62% | -2,797 | -35.52% | 7,876 |
| Tallahatchie | 2,333 | 46.55% | 2,630 | 52.47% | 49 | 0.98% | -297 | -5.92% | 5,012 |
| Tate | 9,185 | 71.42% | 3,555 | 27.64% | 121 | 0.94% | 5,630 | 43.78% | 12,861 |
| Tippah | 7,984 | 83.24% | 1,547 | 16.13% | 60 | 0.63% | 6,437 | 67.11% | 9,591 |
| Tishomingo | 8,064 | 89.10% | 921 | 10.18% | 65 | 0.72% | 7,143 | 78.92% | 9,050 |
| Tunica | 799 | 29.95% | 1,837 | 68.85% | 32 | 1.20% | -1,038 | -38.90% | 2,668 |
| Union | 10,559 | 84.62% | 1,807 | 14.48% | 112 | 0.90% | 8,752 | 70.14% | 12,478 |
| Walthall | 4,114 | 63.01% | 2,355 | 36.07% | 60 | 0.92% | 1,759 | 26.94% | 6,529 |
| Warren | 9,407 | 51.41% | 8,683 | 47.45% | 208 | 1.14% | 724 | 3.96% | 18,298 |
| Washington | 4,649 | 31.97% | 9,735 | 66.95% | 156 | 1.08% | -5,086 | -34.98% | 14,540 |
| Wayne | 6,013 | 65.94% | 3,028 | 33.21% | 78 | 0.85% | 2,985 | 32.73% | 9,119 |
| Webster | 4,195 | 82.34% | 872 | 17.11% | 28 | 0.55% | 3,323 | 65.23% | 5,095 |
| Wilkinson | 1,075 | 36.68% | 1,817 | 61.99% | 39 | 1.33% | -742 | -25.31% | 2,931 |
| Winston | 4,922 | 58.71% | 3,392 | 40.46% | 70 | 0.83% | 1,530 | 18.25% | 8,384 |
| Yalobusha | 3,518 | 59.85% | 2,289 | 38.94% | 71 | 1.21% | 1,229 | 20.91% | 5,878 |
| Yazoo | 4,558 | 50.81% | 4,342 | 48.40% | 71 | 0.79% | 216 | 2.41% | 8,971 |
| Totals | 747,744 | 60.83% | 466,668 | 37.96% | 14,843 | 1.21% | 281,076 | 22.87% | 1,229,255 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Copiah (largest city: Crystal Springs)
- Issaquena (largest city: Mayersville)
- Jasper (largest city: Bay Springs)
- Marshall (largest city: Holly Springs)
- Oktibbeha (largest city: Starkville)
- Pike (largest city: McComb)
- Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)
- Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[25][user-generated source]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67.85% | 30.82% | Trent Kelly |
| 2nd | 39.29% | 59.68% | Bennie Thompson |
| 3rd | 63.68% | 34.49% | Michael Guest |
| 4th | 70.72% | 28.19% | Mike Ezell |
Analysis
[edit]Trump improved in Mississippi, a state in the core of the Deep South where the White and Black votes are extremely polarized. He flipped several counties that are majority or plurality Black, reflecting turnout from Black voters likely declining from 2020, while also slightly shifting to Trump. Trump remained very strong with the White voters across the state.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Mississippi
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States Senate election in Mississippi
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
- ^ "Mississippi Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
- ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Mississippi Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
- ^ "Ballot access for presidential candidates". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Candidate Qualifying List 1.15.2024" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. January 15, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
- ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
- ^ "The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024". The Center for Election Innovation & Research. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
- ^ "Official Results Total Votes Reported by Counties for Federal General Election" (PDF). MS SOS. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
- ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
